PFC CSKA Sofia — Qarabag FK: Win probabilities, 30.07.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 64.3% |
| 12 | 71.4% | |
| X2 | 64.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 51.6% / 48.4% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 91.0% / 9.0% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 72.0% / 28.0% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 45.5% / 54.5% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 24.2% / 75.8% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 10.8% / 89.2% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 4.2% / 95.8% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
PFC CSKA Sofia and Qarabag FK look evenly matched ahead of their UEFA Europa League qualification meeting. The available assessment gives neither side a clear advantage, with a moderate level of confidence in that reading. The signal points toward protection for the home side, but the balance of the matchup means Qarabag FK should remain fully competitive throughout the game.
The scoring outlook is medium-scoring, suggesting a match that could develop chances without necessarily becoming open or high-tempo. Whether both teams score is difficult to call, so the game may hinge on which side manages the key moments more effectively. The leading scoreline is 1:1, while 1:0 and 0:1 also reflect the narrow margins expected between PFC CSKA Sofia and Qarabag FK. A cautious, closely contested encounter appears more likely than a decisive result.
What matters before kick-off
First Leg Result
The first leg of the UEFA Europa League second qualifying round between Qarabağ and CSKA Sofia ended in a 0-0 draw.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.