PFC CSKA Sofia — Qarabag FK: Win probabilities, 30.07.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 67.3% |
| 12 | 72.2% | |
| X2 | 60.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 53.3% / 46.7% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 91.8% / 8.2% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 73.8% / 26.2% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 47.9% / 52.1% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 26.2% / 73.8% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 12.1% / 87.9% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 4.8% / 95.2% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Odds movement
| X1 | was 2.55 → now 2.35 |
| X2 | was 2.55 → now 2.80 |
Match preview
PFC CSKA Sofia and Qarabag FK look evenly matched ahead of their UEFA Europa League qualification meeting. The available assessment points to a moderate-confidence contest with no clear separation between the sides, making the home setting an important contextual factor but not a decisive one. The 1X signal suggests that PFC CSKA Sofia may have a slight protective edge through home advantage, although Qarabag FK remain fully capable of contesting the match.
The scoring outlook is medium, with both teams scoring assessed as a genuine coin flip. That leaves room for a controlled match in which neither side takes excessive risks, but also for a balanced exchange if an early goal changes the approach. Overall, the most reasonable expectation is a competitive game with limited margin between PFC CSKA Sofia and Qarabag FK, where discipline and efficiency in key moments may prove more important than sustained dominance.
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Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.