Ferencvarosi Budapest — FC Twente Enschede: Win probabilities, 30.07.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 57.8% |
| 12 | 74.6% | |
| X2 | 67.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 58.7% / 41.3% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.1% / 5.9% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 78.9% / 21.1% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 55.4% / 44.6% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 33.0% / 67.0% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 16.8% / 83.2% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 7.4% / 92.6% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Ferencvarosi Budapest and FC Twente Enschede look evenly matched ahead of their UEFA Europa League qualifying meeting. The available assessment gives neither side a decisive advantage, so the match may be shaped by small details rather than a clear difference in overall strength. With moderate confidence in the outlook, a cautious approach is appropriate when assessing the likely direction of the game.
The scoring profile points towards a medium-scoring contest, with both teams likely to find the net. That suggests an open enough match to produce chances at both ends, although the available likely outcomes remain closely grouped rather than pointing to a dominant performance. A draw or a narrow result for FC Twente Enschede fits the overall assessment, while Ferencvarosi Budapest should still have a realistic opportunity to make the contest competitive on home territory.
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Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.