Maccabi Tel Aviv FC — FC Sheriff Tiraspol: Win probabilities, 30.07.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 91.6% |
| 12 | 82.8% | |
| X2 | 25.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 51.0% / 49.0% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.4% / 4.6% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 85.4% / 14.6% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 64.5% / 35.5% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 42.4% / 57.6% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 24.1% / 75.9% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 12.0% / 88.0% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Maccabi Tel Aviv FC enter this UEFA Europa League qualifying tie as the clearly stronger side according to the available assessment. The hosts are expected to take the initiative and create the more consistent attacking pressure, while FC Sheriff Tiraspol face the task of remaining compact and limiting the quality of chances allowed. The overall scoring outlook points towards an open match rather than a strictly controlled contest.
The most likely scorelines indicate a Maccabi Tel Aviv FC victory with a clean sheet among the leading possibilities, although a narrower home win is also considered plausible. The expectation that both teams score is balanced, so FC Sheriff Tiraspol have a reasonable chance of contributing if they can exploit spaces during transitions. Overall, the balance of the matchup favours Maccabi Tel Aviv FC, with the main question being whether their advantage produces a comfortable margin or a more competitive result.
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Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.