Maccabi Tel Aviv FC — FC Sheriff Tiraspol: Win probabilities, 30.07.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 91.6% |
| 12 | 82.8% | |
| X2 | 25.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 50.2% / 49.8% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.3% / 4.7% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 84.8% / 15.2% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 63.7% / 36.3% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 41.5% / 58.5% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 23.4% / 76.6% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 11.5% / 88.5% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Maccabi Tel Aviv FC enter this UEFA Europa League qualification tie with a clear advantage over FC Sheriff Tiraspol. The assessment points strongly toward the home side, suggesting that Maccabi Tel Aviv FC should control more of the match and create the more consistent attacking threat. FC Sheriff Tiraspol will need to remain compact and disciplined, particularly if the hosts establish pressure early.
The scoring outlook is also positive, with a high-scoring game considered more likely than a tightly restricted contest. However, whether both teams find the net is less certain, so the match could develop in different ways depending on FC Sheriff Tiraspol’s ability to contribute offensively. The most plausible scorelines indicate a home victory with Maccabi Tel Aviv FC keeping control, including 2:0 and 3:0, while 2:1 represents a closer alternative. Overall, the hosts are clearly stronger, although the exact margin remains open.
What matters before kick-off
First-leg result
Maccabi Tel Aviv earned a 5-0 away win against Sheriff Tiraspol in the first leg of the UEFA Europa League second qualifying round. Sayed Abu Farchi scored a brace alongside goals from Issouf Sissokho, Sagiv Jehezkel, and Dor Peretz.
Sheriff's recent domestic fixture
In their most recent domestic match in the Moldovan Super Liga, Sheriff Tiraspol played out a goalless 0-0 draw against Milsami.
Maccabi's season opener
Prior to the qualifying tie against Sheriff, Maccabi Tel Aviv kicked off their 2026/27 official campaign with a 3-1 victory over Hapoel Be'er Sheva in the Israel Super Cup.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.