SL Benfica — FC Alverca SAD: Win probabilities, 02.11.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
84.1%
Home win
SL Benfica
X
10.3%
Draw
W2
5.6%
Away win
FC Alverca SAD
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1X94.4%
Both teams to score
No55.5%
Totals 2.5
Over69.7%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 94.4% |
| 12 | 89.7% | |
| X2 | 15.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 44.5% / 55.5% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 97.6% / 2.4% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 87.1% / 12.9% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 69.7% / 30.3% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 48.5% / 51.5% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 29.3% / 70.7% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 15.6% / 84.4% |
Goal distribution model
SL Benfica × FC Alverca SAD
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
2.4%
0:1
2.1%
0:2
0.6%
0:3
0.1%
0:4
0.0%
0:5
0.0%
1
1:0
8.4%
1:1
4.9%
1:2
1.7%
1:3
0.4%
1:4
0.1%
1:5
0.0%
2
2:0
12.0%
2:1
7.7%
2:2
2.5%
2:3
0.5%
2:4
0.1%
2:5
0.0%
3
3:0
11.8%
3:1
7.6%
3:2
2.4%
3:3
0.5%
3:4
0.1%
3:5
0.0%
4
4:0
8.7%
4:1
5.6%
4:2
1.8%
4:3
0.4%
4:4
0.1%
4:5
0.0%
5
5:0
5.2%
5:1
3.3%
5:2
1.1%
5:3
0.2%
5:4
0.0%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
2:012.0%
3:011.8%
4:08.7%
1:08.4%
2:17.7%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 02.11.2026
SL Benfica
2nd place · 22 pts after 9Last 5 matches · latest first
- 26.10.2026 away Santa Clara 2:1
- 11.10.2026 home Guimaraes 2:0
- 20.09.2026 away Porto 1:3
- 13.09.2026 home Gil Vicente 3:1
- 09.09.2026 away Moreirense 4:0
FC Alverca SAD
9th place · 11 pts after 9Last 5 matches · latest first
- 24.10.2026 home Arouca 0:1
- 12.10.2026 away Famalicao 4:1
- 19.09.2026 home Rio Ave 1:0
- 12.09.2026 away Nacional 3:1
- 05.09.2026 home Sp Braga 1:2
This season: SL Benfica at home vs FC Alverca SAD away
| Metric | SL Benfica · at home | FC Alverca SAD · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 4 | 4 |
| W–D–L | 3–1–0 | 2–0–2 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.25 | 2.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.00 | 1.75 |
| xG for per match | 2.71 | 1.53 |
| xG against per match | 0.77 | 1.82 |
| Shots on target per match | 7.25 | 5.00 |
| Corners per match | 11.00 | 4.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 75% | 75% |
| Both teams scored | 75% | 75% |
Head-to-head · Last 2 meetings
SL Benfica wins2
Draws0
FC Alverca SAD wins0
Goals per match3.00
Both teams scored2/2
Over 2.5 goals2/2
- 08.02.2026 SL Benfica 2:1 FC Alverca SAD
- 31.08.2025 FC Alverca SAD 1:2 SL Benfica
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
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