FC Porto — Estoril Praia: Win probabilities, 31.10.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
84.1%
Home win
FC Porto
X
10.3%
Draw
W2
5.6%
Away win
Estoril Praia
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1X94.4%
Both teams to score
No54.6%
Totals 2.5
Over70.5%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 94.4% |
| 12 | 89.7% | |
| X2 | 15.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 45.4% / 54.6% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 97.7% / 2.3% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 87.6% / 12.4% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 70.5% / 29.5% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 49.5% / 50.5% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 30.2% / 69.8% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 16.2% / 83.8% |
Goal distribution model
FC Porto × Estoril Praia
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
2.3%
0:1
2.0%
0:2
0.6%
0:3
0.1%
0:4
0.0%
0:5
0.0%
1
1:0
8.1%
1:1
4.9%
1:2
1.7%
1:3
0.4%
1:4
0.1%
1:5
0.0%
2
2:0
11.7%
2:1
7.7%
2:2
2.5%
2:3
0.5%
2:4
0.1%
2:5
0.0%
3
3:0
11.6%
3:1
7.6%
3:2
2.5%
3:3
0.5%
3:4
0.1%
3:5
0.0%
4
4:0
8.7%
4:1
5.7%
4:2
1.9%
4:3
0.4%
4:4
0.1%
4:5
0.0%
5
5:0
5.2%
5:1
3.4%
5:2
1.1%
5:3
0.2%
5:4
0.0%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
2:011.7%
3:011.6%
4:08.7%
1:08.1%
2:17.7%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 31.10.2026
FC Porto
1st place · 27 pts after 9Last 5 matches · latest first
- 24.10.2026 away Gil Vicente 1:0
- 10.10.2026 away Maritimo 2:1
- 20.09.2026 home Benfica 3:1
- 12.09.2026 away Casa Pia 4:1
- 04.09.2026 home Moreirense 2:1
Estoril Praia
18th place · 2 pts after 9Last 5 matches · latest first
- 25.10.2026 home Moreirense 1:3
- 10.10.2026 away Academico Viseu 1:2
- 20.09.2026 home Casa Pia 1:2
- 14.09.2026 away Sp Braga 0:1
- 07.09.2026 home Arouca 0:0
This season: FC Porto at home vs Estoril Praia away
| Metric | FC Porto · at home | Estoril Praia · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 4 | 4 |
| W–D–L | 4–0–0 | 0–0–4 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.25 | 0.50 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.50 | 1.75 |
| xG for per match | 2.45 | 0.82 |
| xG against per match | 0.97 | 1.66 |
| Shots on target per match | 7.50 | 4.25 |
| Corners per match | 7.75 | 2.75 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
FC Porto wins4
Draws0
Estoril Praia wins2
Goals per match2.33
Both teams scored2/6
Over 2.5 goals3/6
- 12.04.2026 Estoril Praia 1:3 FC Porto
- 30.11.2025 FC Porto 1:0 Estoril Praia
- 30.03.2025 Estoril Praia 1:2 FC Porto
- 03.11.2024 FC Porto 4:0 Estoril Praia
- 30.03.2024 Estoril Praia 1:0 FC Porto
- 03.11.2023 FC Porto 0:1 Estoril Praia
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Odds movement
| X | was 6.75 → now 7.50 |
| W2 | was 14.00 → now 13.00 |
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