Moreirense FC — Estrela Amadora: Win probabilities, 31.10.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
33.3%
Home win
Moreirense FC
X
28.4%
Draw
W2
38.4%
Away win
Estrela Amadora
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1271.6%
Both teams to score
Yes53.8%
Totals 2.5
Under51.9%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 61.6% |
| 12 | 71.6% | |
| X2 | 66.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 53.8% / 46.2% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 91.5% / 8.5% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 74.2% / 25.8% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 48.1% / 51.9% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 26.3% / 73.7% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 12.2% / 87.8% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 4.9% / 95.1% |
Goal distribution model
Moreirense FC × Estrela Amadora
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
8.5%
0:1
9.1%
0:2
6.8%
0:3
3.1%
0:4
1.0%
0:5
0.3%
1
1:0
8.3%
1:1
13.5%
1:2
8.5%
1:3
3.8%
1:4
1.3%
1:5
0.3%
2
2:0
5.8%
2:1
7.8%
2:2
5.3%
2:3
2.4%
2:4
0.8%
2:5
0.2%
3
3:0
2.4%
3:1
3.2%
3:2
2.2%
3:3
1.0%
3:4
0.3%
3:5
0.1%
4
4:0
0.7%
4:1
1.0%
4:2
0.7%
4:3
0.3%
4:4
0.1%
4:5
0.0%
5
5:0
0.2%
5:1
0.3%
5:2
0.2%
5:3
0.1%
5:4
0.0%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
1:113.5%
0:19.1%
1:28.5%
0:08.5%
1:08.3%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 31.10.2026
Moreirense FC
10th place · 11 pts after 9Last 5 matches · latest first
- 25.10.2026 away Estoril 3:1
- 09.10.2026 home Gil Vicente 0:1
- 20.09.2026 away Guimaraes 1:1
- 14.09.2026 home Maritimo 3:1
- 09.09.2026 home Benfica 0:4
Estrela Amadora
12th place · 10 pts after 9Last 5 matches · latest first
- 24.10.2026 home Casa Pia 0:2
- 11.10.2026 away Arouca 0:1
- 20.09.2026 home Academico Viseu 0:2
- 14.09.2026 away Rio Ave 3:3
- 10.09.2026 home Sp Braga 2:1
This season: Moreirense FC at home vs Estrela Amadora away
| Metric | Moreirense FC · at home | Estrela Amadora · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 4 | 4 |
| W–D–L | 1–1–2 | 1–2–1 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.25 | 2.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| xG for per match | 0.92 | 1.68 |
| xG against per match | 1.69 | 1.14 |
| Shots on target per match | 2.75 | 4.75 |
| Corners per match | 3.50 | 3.50 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 75% | 75% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 75% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
Moreirense FC wins2
Draws3
Estrela Amadora wins1
Goals per match2.50
Both teams scored4/6
Over 2.5 goals3/6
- 02.05.2026 Moreirense FC 3:2 Estrela Amadora
- 20.12.2025 Estrela Amadora 0:0 Moreirense FC
- 02.03.2025 Moreirense FC 1:1 Estrela Amadora
- 28.09.2024 Estrela Amadora 2:1 Moreirense FC
- 07.04.2024 Moreirense FC 2:2 Estrela Amadora
- 11.11.2023 Estrela Amadora 0:1 Moreirense FC
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
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