Maritimo Madeira — Santa Clara Azores: Win probabilities, 01.11.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
28.0%
Home win
Maritimo Madeira
X
29.9%
Draw
W2
42.1%
Away win
Santa Clara Azores
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
X272.0%
Both teams to score
No52.6%
Totals 2.5
Under59.2%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 57.9% |
| 12 | 70.1% | |
| X2 | 72.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 47.4% / 52.6% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 89.1% / 10.9% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 68.3% / 31.7% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 40.8% / 59.2% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 20.4% / 79.6% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 8.5% / 91.5% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 3.1% / 96.9% |
Goal distribution model
Maritimo Madeira × Santa Clara Azores
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
10.9%
0:1
11.8%
0:2
8.4%
0:3
3.6%
0:4
1.2%
0:5
0.3%
1
1:0
9.0%
1:1
14.0%
1:2
8.5%
1:3
3.7%
1:4
1.2%
1:5
0.3%
2
2:0
5.1%
2:1
6.6%
2:2
4.3%
2:3
1.9%
2:4
0.6%
2:5
0.2%
3
3:0
1.7%
3:1
2.2%
3:2
1.5%
3:3
0.6%
3:4
0.2%
3:5
0.1%
4
4:0
0.4%
4:1
0.6%
4:2
0.4%
4:3
0.2%
4:4
0.1%
4:5
0.0%
5
5:0
0.1%
5:1
0.1%
5:2
0.1%
5:3
0.0%
5:4
0.0%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
1:114.0%
0:111.8%
0:010.9%
1:09.0%
1:28.5%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 01.11.2026
Maritimo Madeira
14th place · 8 pts after 9Last 5 matches · latest first
- 23.10.2026 away Guimaraes 0:5
- 10.10.2026 home Porto 1:2
- 19.09.2026 away Gil Vicente 1:1
- 14.09.2026 away Moreirense 1:3
- 05.09.2026 home Benfica 0:3
Santa Clara Azores
4th place · 18 pts after 9Last 5 matches · latest first
- 26.10.2026 home Benfica 1:2
- 10.10.2026 away Casa Pia 1:0
- 20.09.2026 home Sp Braga 0:0
- 13.09.2026 away Arouca 2:1
- 06.09.2026 home Rio Ave 4:0
This season: Maritimo Madeira at home vs Santa Clara Azores away
| Metric | Maritimo Madeira · at home | Santa Clara Azores · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 4 | 4 |
| W–D–L | 1–1–2 | 3–1–0 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.00 | 1.25 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.75 | 0.50 |
| xG for per match | 0.72 | 1.11 |
| xG against per match | 1.48 | 0.56 |
| Shots on target per match | 3.25 | 3.00 |
| Corners per match | 2.75 | 3.75 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 75% | 25% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
Maritimo Madeira wins2
Draws1
Santa Clara Azores wins3
Goals per match3.50
Both teams scored5/6
Over 2.5 goals5/6
- 25.02.2023 Maritimo Madeira 3:1 Santa Clara Azores
- 04.09.2022 Santa Clara Azores 2:1 Maritimo Madeira
- 23.04.2022 Santa Clara Azores 2:2 Maritimo Madeira
- 11.12.2021 Maritimo Madeira 4:1 Santa Clara Azores
- 08.02.2021 Maritimo Madeira 1:2 Santa Clara Azores
- 20.09.2020 Santa Clara Azores 2:0 Maritimo Madeira
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Odds movement
| W1 | was 3.05 → now 3.30 |
| W2 | was 2.43 → now 2.25 |
Check current terms · 1WIN18+
Bonus up to $500
Sports betting, live markets and mobile app. Available only to users of legal gambling age in eligible regions.
Check available odds ↗
Other matches
Tools
Check the numbers before deciding
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.