Gil Vicente Barcelos — Vitoria SC Guimaraes: Win probabilities, 02.11.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
37.6%
Home win
Gil Vicente Barcelos
X
28.4%
Draw
W2
34.0%
Away win
Vitoria SC Guimaraes
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1271.6%
Both teams to score
Yes52.9%
Totals 2.5
Under53.0%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 66.0% |
| 12 | 71.6% | |
| X2 | 62.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 52.9% / 47.1% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 91.3% / 8.7% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 73.3% / 26.7% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 47.0% / 53.0% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 25.4% / 74.6% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 11.6% / 88.4% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 4.6% / 95.4% |
Goal distribution model
Gil Vicente Barcelos × Vitoria SC Guimaraes
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
8.7%
0:1
8.7%
0:2
6.0%
0:3
2.5%
0:4
0.8%
0:5
0.2%
1
1:0
9.3%
1:1
13.6%
1:2
7.8%
1:3
3.2%
1:4
1.0%
1:5
0.2%
2
2:0
6.7%
2:1
8.3%
2:2
5.2%
2:3
2.1%
2:4
0.7%
2:5
0.2%
3
3:0
3.0%
3:1
3.7%
3:2
2.3%
3:3
0.9%
3:4
0.3%
3:5
0.1%
4
4:0
1.0%
4:1
1.2%
4:2
0.7%
4:3
0.3%
4:4
0.1%
4:5
0.0%
5
5:0
0.3%
5:1
0.3%
5:2
0.2%
5:3
0.1%
5:4
0.0%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
1:113.6%
1:09.3%
0:18.7%
0:08.7%
2:18.3%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 02.11.2026
Gil Vicente Barcelos
7th place · 15 pts after 10Last 5 matches · latest first
- 24.10.2026 home Porto 0:1
- 19.10.2026 away Sp Braga 2:1
- 09.10.2026 away Moreirense 1:0
- 19.09.2026 home Maritimo 1:1
- 13.09.2026 away Benfica 1:3
Vitoria SC Guimaraes
13th place · 8 pts after 9Last 5 matches · latest first
- 23.10.2026 home Maritimo 5:0
- 11.10.2026 away Benfica 0:2
- 20.09.2026 home Moreirense 1:1
- 12.09.2026 away Academico Viseu 1:2
- 06.09.2026 home Casa Pia 0:0
This season: Gil Vicente Barcelos at home vs Vitoria SC Guimaraes away
| Metric | Gil Vicente Barcelos · at home | Vitoria SC Guimaraes · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 5 | 4 |
| W–D–L | 2–1–2 | 0–0–4 |
| Goals scored per match | 0.80 | 0.75 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.60 | 2.00 |
| xG for per match | 1.34 | 0.97 |
| xG against per match | 0.67 | 1.64 |
| Shots on target per match | 4.40 | 3.00 |
| Corners per match | 4.40 | 4.25 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 0% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 50% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
Gil Vicente Barcelos wins1
Draws1
Vitoria SC Guimaraes wins4
Goals per match1.67
Both teams scored1/6
Over 2.5 goals2/6
- 18.04.2026 Gil Vicente Barcelos 0:1 Vitoria SC Guimaraes
- 08.12.2025 Vitoria SC Guimaraes 0:0 Gil Vicente Barcelos
- 11.04.2025 Gil Vicente Barcelos 0:1 Vitoria SC Guimaraes
- 02.12.2024 Vitoria SC Guimaraes 4:0 Gil Vicente Barcelos
- 28.01.2024 Gil Vicente Barcelos 1:0 Vitoria SC Guimaraes
- 19.08.2023 Vitoria SC Guimaraes 2:1 Gil Vicente Barcelos
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
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