FC Arouca — Nacional da Madeira: Win probabilities, 01.11.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
53.2%
Home win
FC Arouca
X
25.3%
Draw
W2
21.5%
Away win
Nacional da Madeira
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1X78.5%
Both teams to score
Yes53.7%
Totals 2.5
Over52.2%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 78.5% |
| 12 | 74.7% | |
| X2 | 46.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 53.7% / 46.3% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 92.9% / 7.1% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 77.1% / 22.9% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 52.2% / 47.8% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 30.0% / 70.0% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 14.7% / 85.3% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 6.2% / 93.8% |
Goal distribution model
FC Arouca × Nacional da Madeira
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
7.1%
0:1
5.7%
0:2
3.3%
0:3
1.1%
0:4
0.3%
0:5
0.1%
1
1:0
10.1%
1:1
12.1%
1:2
5.8%
1:3
2.0%
1:4
0.5%
1:5
0.1%
2
2:0
9.5%
2:1
9.8%
2:2
5.0%
2:3
1.7%
2:4
0.4%
2:5
0.1%
3
3:0
5.5%
3:1
5.7%
3:2
2.9%
3:3
1.0%
3:4
0.3%
3:5
0.1%
4
4:0
2.4%
4:1
2.5%
4:2
1.3%
4:3
0.4%
4:4
0.1%
4:5
0.0%
5
5:0
0.8%
5:1
0.9%
5:2
0.4%
5:3
0.1%
5:4
0.0%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
1:112.1%
1:010.1%
2:19.8%
2:09.5%
0:07.1%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 01.11.2026
FC Arouca
5th place · 17 pts after 9Last 5 matches · latest first
- 24.10.2026 away Alverca 1:0
- 11.10.2026 home Estrela 1:0
- 19.09.2026 away Sp Lisbon 2:2
- 13.09.2026 home Santa Clara 1:2
- 07.09.2026 away Estoril 0:0
Nacional da Madeira
15th place · 7 pts after 9Last 5 matches · latest first
- 25.10.2026 home Sp Braga 1:0
- 11.10.2026 away Rio Ave 2:3
- 19.09.2026 home Famalicao 0:4
- 12.09.2026 home Alverca 1:3
- 05.09.2026 away Sp Lisbon 0:2
This season: FC Arouca at home vs Nacional da Madeira away
| Metric | FC Arouca · at home | Nacional da Madeira · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 4 | 4 |
| W–D–L | 3–0–1 | 0–1–3 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.75 | 2.00 |
| xG for per match | 1.32 | 0.74 |
| xG against per match | 0.94 | 2.31 |
| Shots on target per match | 5.00 | 2.75 |
| Corners per match | 4.25 | 3.75 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 75% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
Head-to-head · Last 4 meetings
FC Arouca wins4
Draws0
Nacional da Madeira wins0
Goals per match2.50
Both teams scored2/4
Over 2.5 goals3/4
- 21.02.2026 FC Arouca 3:0 Nacional da Madeira
- 20.09.2025 Nacional da Madeira 1:2 FC Arouca
- 01.02.2025 Nacional da Madeira 1:2 FC Arouca
- 25.08.2024 FC Arouca 1:0 Nacional da Madeira
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Odds movement
| W1 | was 1.88 → now 1.80 |
| W2 | was 3.90 → now 4.20 |
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