Casa Pia Lisbon — Sporting CP: Win probabilities, 30.10.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
6.8%
Home win
Casa Pia Lisbon
X
13.4%
Draw
W2
79.8%
Away win
Sporting CP
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
X293.2%
Both teams to score
No53.9%
Totals 2.5
Over65.7%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 20.2% |
| 12 | 86.6% | |
| X2 | 93.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 46.1% / 53.9% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.5% / 3.5% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 85.2% / 14.8% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 65.7% / 34.3% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 43.8% / 56.2% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 25.2% / 74.8% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 12.7% / 87.3% |
Goal distribution model
Casa Pia Lisbon × Sporting CP
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
3.5%
0:1
9.1%
0:2
12.4%
0:3
11.2%
0:4
7.6%
0:5
4.1%
1
1:0
2.2%
1:1
6.4%
1:2
8.4%
1:3
7.6%
1:4
5.1%
1:5
2.8%
2
2:0
0.8%
2:1
2.1%
2:2
2.9%
2:3
2.6%
2:4
1.7%
2:5
0.9%
3
3:0
0.2%
3:1
0.5%
3:2
0.6%
3:3
0.6%
3:4
0.4%
3:5
0.2%
4
4:0
0.0%
4:1
0.1%
4:2
0.1%
4:3
0.1%
4:4
0.1%
4:5
0.0%
5
5:0
0.0%
5:1
0.0%
5:2
0.0%
5:3
0.0%
5:4
0.0%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
0:212.4%
0:311.2%
0:19.1%
1:28.4%
1:37.6%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 30.10.2026
Casa Pia Lisbon
16th place · 7 pts after 9Last 5 matches · latest first
- 24.10.2026 away Estrela 2:0
- 10.10.2026 home Santa Clara 0:1
- 20.09.2026 away Estoril 2:1
- 12.09.2026 home Porto 1:4
- 06.09.2026 away Guimaraes 0:0
Sporting CP
3rd place · 18 pts after 9Last 5 matches · latest first
- 25.10.2026 home Academico Viseu 1:2
- 09.10.2026 away Sp Braga 3:1
- 19.09.2026 home Arouca 2:2
- 13.09.2026 away Famalicao 1:1
- 05.09.2026 home Nacional 2:0
This season: Casa Pia Lisbon at home vs Sporting CP away
| Metric | Casa Pia Lisbon · at home | Sporting CP · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 4 | 4 |
| W–D–L | 0–0–4 | 2–2–0 |
| Goals scored per match | 0.25 | 2.50 |
| Goals conceded per match | 3.25 | 1.00 |
| xG for per match | 0.73 | 1.88 |
| xG against per match | 1.63 | 0.83 |
| Shots on target per match | 2.25 | 5.75 |
| Corners per match | 3.50 | 3.25 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 75% |
| Both teams scored | 25% | 75% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
Casa Pia Lisbon wins0
Draws0
Sporting CP wins6
Goals per match3.67
Both teams scored2/6
Over 2.5 goals4/6
- 16.01.2026 Sporting CP 3:0 Casa Pia Lisbon
- 08.08.2025 Casa Pia Lisbon 0:2 Sporting CP
- 09.03.2025 Casa Pia Lisbon 1:3 Sporting CP
- 05.10.2024 Sporting CP 2:0 Casa Pia Lisbon
- 29.01.2024 Sporting CP 8:0 Casa Pia Lisbon
- 18.08.2023 Casa Pia Lisbon 1:2 Sporting CP
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Check current terms · 1WIN18+
Bonus up to $500
Sports betting, live markets and mobile app. Available only to users of legal gambling age in eligible regions.
Check available odds ↗
Other matches
Tools
Check the numbers before deciding
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.