SL Benfica — Estoril Praia: Win probabilities, 31.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 95.4% |
| 12 | 93.4% | |
| X2 | 11.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 47.0% / 53.0% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 99.2% / 0.8% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 91.1% / 8.9% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 78.3% / 21.7% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 59.5% / 40.5% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 40.0% / 60.0% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 23.8% / 76.2% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
SL Benfica enter this Liga Portugal fixture as the clearly stronger side, with a high level of confidence behind the home outcome. Estoril Praia face a demanding task away from home, particularly against an opponent whose attacking profile points toward an open, high-scoring match. The available signals strongly favour SL Benfica, although the information does not indicate that the game will necessarily be one-sided in every phase.
The scoring outlook suggests that SL Benfica should create the greater threat, while the possibility of both teams scoring remains balanced rather than clearly supported in either direction. The most likely score patterns point to a controlled home victory, with 3:0, 2:0 and 4:0 among the leading possibilities. Estoril Praia will need to limit the hosts' opportunities and remain disciplined for long periods, while SL Benfica's priority will be to turn their superiority into an efficient performance.
What matters before kick-off
Europa League qualification
Benfica enter the match following their qualification for the Europa League main stage, after defeating Danish club AGF Aarhus 6-2 on aggregate.
Estoril winless streak in the league
Estoril Praia have failed to win any of their last 11 Primeira Liga games, earning just one point from their opening three matches of the season.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.