SL Benfica — Estoril Praia: Win probabilities, 31.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 95.4% |
| 12 | 93.4% | |
| X2 | 11.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 47.0% / 53.0% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 99.2% / 0.8% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 91.1% / 8.9% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 78.3% / 21.7% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 59.5% / 40.5% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 40.0% / 60.0% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 23.8% / 76.2% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 31.08.2026
SL Benfica
8th place · 4 pts after 2Last 5 matches · latest first
- 17.08.2026 away Casa Pia 7:0
- 09.08.2026 home Academico Viseu 2:2
- 16.05.2026 away Estoril 3:1
- 11.05.2026 home Sp Braga 2:2
- 02.05.2026 away Famalicao 2:2
Estoril Praia
17th place · 1 pts after 3Last 5 matches · latest first
- 22.08.2026 home Rio Ave 0:2
- 16.08.2026 away Nacional 0:2
- 07.08.2026 home Famalicao 1:1
- 16.05.2026 home Benfica 1:3
- 10.05.2026 away Alverca 1:1
This season: SL Benfica at home vs Estoril Praia away
| Metric | SL Benfica · at home | Estoril Praia · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 1 | 1 |
| W–D–L | 0–1–0 | 0–0–1 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| xG for per match | 3.12 | 0.82 |
| xG against per match | 1.18 | 2.08 |
| Shots on target per match | 11.00 | 5.00 |
| Corners per match | 10.00 | 4.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 0% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 16.05.2026 Estoril Praia 1:3 SL Benfica
- 03.01.2026 SL Benfica 3:1 Estoril Praia
- 03.05.2025 Estoril Praia 1:2 SL Benfica
- 23.12.2024 SL Benfica 3:0 Estoril Praia
- 10.03.2024 SL Benfica 3:1 Estoril Praia
- 07.10.2023 Estoril Praia 0:1 SL Benfica
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
SL Benfica enter this Liga Portugal fixture as the clearly stronger side, with a high level of confidence behind the home outcome. Estoril Praia face a demanding task away from home, particularly against an opponent whose attacking profile points toward an open, high-scoring match. The available signals strongly favour SL Benfica, although the information does not indicate that the game will necessarily be one-sided in every phase.
The scoring outlook suggests that SL Benfica should create the greater threat, while the possibility of both teams scoring remains balanced rather than clearly supported in either direction. The most likely score patterns point to a controlled home victory, with 3:0, 2:0 and 4:0 among the leading possibilities. Estoril Praia will need to limit the hosts' opportunities and remain disciplined for long periods, while SL Benfica's priority will be to turn their superiority into an efficient performance.
What matters before kick-off
Europa League qualification
Benfica enter the match following their qualification for the Europa League main stage, after defeating Danish club AGF Aarhus 6-2 on aggregate.
Estoril winless streak in the league
Estoril Praia have failed to win any of their last 11 Primeira Liga games, earning just one point from their opening three matches of the season.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.