Nacional da Madeira — Estrela Amadora: Win probabilities, 30.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 69.8% |
| 12 | 71.7% | |
| X2 | 58.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 56.1% / 43.9% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 92.0% / 8.0% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 76.7% / 23.3% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 50.9% / 49.1% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 28.8% / 71.2% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 13.9% / 86.1% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 5.8% / 94.2% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Nacional da Madeira and Estrela Amadora appear evenly matched ahead of their Liga Portugal meeting. The available indicators point to a balanced contest, with neither side holding a decisive overall advantage. That suggests the opening stages could be cautious, as both teams look to avoid giving the opponent control before gradually increasing the tempo.
The match is projected to have a medium-scoring profile, although the prospect of both teams finding the net remains finely balanced. Nacional da Madeira have a slight edge in the broader result signal, particularly through the possibility of avoiding defeat at home, but the margin is not substantial enough to separate the sides confidently. A draw such as 1:1 fits the competitive outlook, while 2:1 or 1:0 also reflect the potential for a narrow home advantage. Expect a close game in which small moments and efficiency in the final third may prove important.
What matters before kick-off
Nacional's recent match result
Nacional head into this fixture following a 1-0 away defeat against Vitoria Guimaraes in gameweek three of the Primeira Liga.
Nacional's home league record
Nacional have won four of their last five Primeira Liga matches at Estádio da Madeira, keeping a clean sheet in all four victories.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.