Nacional da Madeira — Estrela Amadora: Win probabilities, 30.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 69.8% |
| 12 | 71.7% | |
| X2 | 58.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 56.1% / 43.9% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 92.0% / 8.0% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 76.7% / 23.3% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 50.9% / 49.1% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 28.8% / 71.2% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 13.9% / 86.1% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 5.8% / 94.2% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 30.08.2026
Nacional da Madeira
8th place · 4 pts after 3Last 5 matches · latest first
- 23.08.2026 away Guimaraes 0:1
- 16.08.2026 home Estoril 2:0
- 10.08.2026 away Santa Clara 2:2
- 16.05.2026 home Guimaraes 2:0
- 11.05.2026 away Santa Clara 0:2
Estrela Amadora
11th place · 2 pts after 2Last 5 matches · latest first
- 15.08.2026 away Alverca 2:2
- 08.08.2026 home Sp Lisbon 2:2
- 16.05.2026 away Sp Braga 2:2
- 11.05.2026 home Famalicao 0:0
- 02.05.2026 away Moreirense 2:3
This season: Nacional da Madeira at home vs Estrela Amadora away
| Metric | Nacional da Madeira · at home | Estrela Amadora · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 1 | 1 |
| W–D–L | 1–0–0 | 0–1–0 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| xG for per match | 2.08 | 1.29 |
| xG against per match | 0.82 | 1.75 |
| Shots on target per match | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| Corners per match | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 0% | 100% |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 100% |
Head-to-head · Last 4 meetings
- 04.04.2026 Nacional da Madeira 2:0 Estrela Amadora
- 09.11.2025 Estrela Amadora 1:1 Nacional da Madeira
- 06.04.2025 Nacional da Madeira 0:1 Estrela Amadora
- 10.11.2024 Estrela Amadora 2:0 Nacional da Madeira
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Nacional da Madeira and Estrela Amadora appear evenly matched ahead of their Liga Portugal meeting. The available indicators point to a balanced contest, with neither side holding a decisive overall advantage. That suggests the opening stages could be cautious, as both teams look to avoid giving the opponent control before gradually increasing the tempo.
The match is projected to have a medium-scoring profile, although the prospect of both teams finding the net remains finely balanced. Nacional da Madeira have a slight edge in the broader result signal, particularly through the possibility of avoiding defeat at home, but the margin is not substantial enough to separate the sides confidently. A draw such as 1:1 fits the competitive outlook, while 2:1 or 1:0 also reflect the potential for a narrow home advantage. Expect a close game in which small moments and efficiency in the final third may prove important.
What matters before kick-off
Nacional's recent match result
Nacional head into this fixture following a 1-0 away defeat against Vitoria Guimaraes in gameweek three of the Primeira Liga.
Nacional's home league record
Nacional have won four of their last five Primeira Liga matches at Estádio da Madeira, keeping a clean sheet in all four victories.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.