FC Alverca SAD — Santa Clara Azores: Win probabilities, 29.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 67.9% |
| 12 | 69.0% | |
| X2 | 63.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 47.3% / 52.7% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 88.5% / 11.5% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 67.5% / 32.5% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 39.7% / 60.3% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 19.5% / 80.5% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 8.1% / 91.9% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 2.9% / 97.1% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
FC Alverca SAD and Santa Clara Azores appear evenly matched ahead of their Liga Portugal meeting. The available assessment gives the hosts a slight edge in the 1X market, but confidence is moderate rather than strong, so the fixture looks finely balanced.
A low-scoring game is expected, with 1:1, 0:0 and 1:0 identified as the likeliest scorelines. Whether both teams score is also difficult to separate, making the match more dependent on small moments than on a clear superiority from either side.
What matters before kick-off
FC Alverca's recent result
In their previous Liga Portugal fixture, FC Alverca suffered a 3-1 road defeat against Sporting CP, with Lucas Figueiredo scoring their lone goal.
Santa Clara's recent result
Santa Clara enter the match following a 1-0 home victory over Famalicão, securing back-to-back victories in Liga Portugal.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.