Casa Pia Lisbon — Moreirense FC: Win probabilities, 30.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 63.9% |
| 12 | 69.7% | |
| X2 | 66.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 48.9% / 51.1% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 89.3% / 10.7% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 69.2% / 30.8% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 41.7% / 58.3% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 21.1% / 78.9% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 9.0% / 91.0% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 3.3% / 96.7% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 30.08.2026
Casa Pia Lisbon
18th place · 0 pts after 3Last 5 matches · latest first
- 24.08.2026 away Gil Vicente 0:2
- 17.08.2026 home Benfica 0:7
- 08.08.2026 away Maritimo 0:1
- 16.05.2026 home Rio Ave 1:1
- 11.05.2026 away Guimaraes 1:0
Moreirense FC
16th place · 1 pts after 2Last 5 matches · latest first
- 16.08.2026 away Arouca 0:4
- 09.08.2026 home Sp Braga 2:2
- 16.05.2026 home AVS 0:0
- 11.05.2026 away Tondela 0:2
- 02.05.2026 home Estrela 3:2
This season: Casa Pia Lisbon at home vs Moreirense FC away
| Metric | Casa Pia Lisbon · at home | Moreirense FC · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 1 | 1 |
| W–D–L | 0–0–1 | 0–0–1 |
| Goals scored per match | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| xG for per match | 0.12 | 0.49 |
| xG against per match | 3.04 | 2.14 |
| Shots on target per match | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| Corners per match | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 100% |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 0% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 01.03.2026 Casa Pia Lisbon 1:1 Moreirense FC
- 27.09.2025 Moreirense FC 2:1 Casa Pia Lisbon
- 15.02.2025 Moreirense FC 3:2 Casa Pia Lisbon
- 14.09.2024 Casa Pia Lisbon 3:1 Moreirense FC
- 12.05.2024 Casa Pia Lisbon 0:1 Moreirense FC
- 08.01.2024 Moreirense FC 1:4 Casa Pia Lisbon
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Casa Pia Lisbon and Moreirense FC meet in Liga Portugal on 30 August 2026 in a fixture that looks evenly matched. The available assessment gives neither side a clear advantage, with a moderate level of confidence in that reading. This points toward a cautious contest in which small details, game management and the ability to make the most of limited opportunities could prove important.
The scoring outlook is medium, rather than strongly open or distinctly defensive. A draw is a plausible scenario, while Moreirense FC may have a slight edge in avoiding defeat, but the gap between the teams remains narrow. Whether both sides score is difficult to assess, so the match could develop into either a balanced exchange or a more restrained encounter. Casa Pia Lisbon will aim to use home advantage to control the rhythm, while Moreirense FC can look to stay compact and apply pressure when openings appear.
What matters before kick-off
Matchday 3 Postponement
Casa Pia's round three fixture against Benfica was postponed due to Benfica's involvement in Europa League qualifying matches.
Head-to-head league record
In the Portuguese league, Casa Pia and Moreirense have met 6 times, resulting in 2 wins for Casa Pia, 1 draw, and 3 victories for Moreirense.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.