Casa Pia Lisbon — Moreirense FC: Win probabilities, 30.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 63.9% |
| 12 | 69.7% | |
| X2 | 66.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 48.9% / 51.1% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 89.3% / 10.7% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 69.2% / 30.8% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 41.7% / 58.3% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 21.1% / 78.9% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 9.0% / 91.0% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 3.3% / 96.7% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Casa Pia Lisbon and Moreirense FC meet in Liga Portugal on 30 August 2026 in a fixture that looks evenly matched. The available assessment gives neither side a clear advantage, with a moderate level of confidence in that reading. This points toward a cautious contest in which small details, game management and the ability to make the most of limited opportunities could prove important.
The scoring outlook is medium, rather than strongly open or distinctly defensive. A draw is a plausible scenario, while Moreirense FC may have a slight edge in avoiding defeat, but the gap between the teams remains narrow. Whether both sides score is difficult to assess, so the match could develop into either a balanced exchange or a more restrained encounter. Casa Pia Lisbon will aim to use home advantage to control the rhythm, while Moreirense FC can look to stay compact and apply pressure when openings appear.
What matters before kick-off
Matchday 3 Postponement
Casa Pia's round three fixture against Benfica was postponed due to Benfica's involvement in Europa League qualifying matches.
Head-to-head league record
In the Portuguese league, Casa Pia and Moreirense have met 6 times, resulting in 2 wins for Casa Pia, 1 draw, and 3 victories for Moreirense.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.