Academico de Viseu FC — FC Porto: Win probabilities, 29.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 24.1% |
| 12 | 83.9% | |
| X2 | 92.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 44.8% / 55.2% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.1% / 4.9% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 81.8% / 18.2% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 59.8% / 40.2% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 37.4% / 62.6% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 20.1% / 79.9% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 9.4% / 90.6% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Academico de Viseu FC face a difficult Liga Portugal assignment against FC Porto. The available assessment gives FC Porto a clear overall edge, with the visitors appearing stronger in the expected match outcome. The projected game is medium-scoring, suggesting a contest in which FC Porto’s attacking quality could have a significant influence without pointing to an exceptionally open match.
The possibility of both teams scoring is balanced, so Academico de Viseu FC may still have opportunities to contribute offensively. However, the main analytical signal favours FC Porto, and the likely score patterns all point towards an away victory, including 0:1, 0:2 and 0:3. That leaves Academico de Viseu FC needing an efficient performance in both defensive organisation and the limited chances they create.
What matters before kick-off
FC Porto's strong league start
FC Porto started their Liga Portugal title defense with three consecutive 2-0 victories against FC Alverca, Rio Ave, and Arouca, keeping clean sheets in all three matches.
Académico de Viseu's return to the top flight
Académico de Viseu returned to the Portuguese top flight after 37 years and earned a 2-2 draw away against Benfica in their opening match of the season.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.