Rio Ave FC — Sporting CP: Win probabilities, 28.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 28.6% |
| 12 | 82.6% | |
| X2 | 88.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 48.9% / 51.1% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.4% / 4.6% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 81.3% / 18.7% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 59.5% / 40.5% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 37.1% / 62.9% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 19.9% / 80.1% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 9.2% / 90.8% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 28.08.2026
Rio Ave FC
10th place · 3 pts after 3Last 5 matches · latest first
- 22.08.2026 away Estoril 2:0
- 15.08.2026 home Porto 0:2
- 09.08.2026 away Gil Vicente 0:1
- 16.05.2026 away Casa Pia 1:1
- 11.05.2026 home Sp Lisbon 1:4
Sporting CP
2nd place · 7 pts after 3Last 5 matches · latest first
- 22.08.2026 home Alverca 3:1
- 14.08.2026 home Guimaraes 3:2
- 08.08.2026 away Estrela 2:2
- 16.05.2026 home Gil Vicente 3:0
- 11.05.2026 away Rio Ave 4:1
This season: Rio Ave FC at home vs Sporting CP away
| Metric | Rio Ave FC · at home | Sporting CP · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 1 | 1 |
| W–D–L | 0–0–1 | 0–1–0 |
| Goals scored per match | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| xG for per match | 0.57 | 2.62 |
| xG against per match | 1.98 | 1.01 |
| Shots on target per match | 1.00 | 8.00 |
| Corners per match | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 0% | 100% |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 100% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 11.05.2026 Rio Ave FC 1:4 Sporting CP
- 28.12.2025 Sporting CP 4:0 Rio Ave FC
- 18.01.2025 Rio Ave FC 0:3 Sporting CP
- 09.08.2024 Sporting CP 3:1 Rio Ave FC
- 25.02.2024 Rio Ave FC 3:3 Sporting CP
- 25.09.2023 Sporting CP 2:0 Rio Ave FC
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Rio Ave FC face Sporting CP in a Liga Portugal meeting where the visitors hold the clearer overall edge. The available assessment points strongly towards Sporting CP, with the away side better positioned to control the match and make the most of its attacking opportunities. Rio Ave FC will need to remain compact and disciplined, particularly if Sporting CP establish possession in advanced areas.
The game is also expected to have an open, high-scoring profile rather than a tightly limited contest. However, whether both teams find the net is less clear, so Rio Ave FC’s attacking contribution remains an important variable. The most plausible scorelines point to a Sporting CP victory, with 0:2, 0:1 and 0:3 among the leading possibilities. Overall, the outlook gives Sporting CP a substantial advantage, while the exact margin may depend on how effectively Rio Ave FC respond when they regain possession.
What matters before kick-off
Rio Ave's First Win of the Season
In Matchday 3 of Liga Portugal, Rio Ave secured a 2-0 road victory against Estoril Praia to earn their first win of the season.
Sporting CP's Early Season Form
Sporting CP enter Matchday 4 with seven points from their opening three league fixtures after defeating FC Alverca 3-1 in their last match.
Head-to-Head Record
Sporting CP have won all six of their most recent encounters with Rio Ave, including 4-0 and 4-1 victories during the previous league campaign.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.