FC Arouca — Maritimo Madeira: Win probabilities, 29.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 72.8% |
| 12 | 71.5% | |
| X2 | 55.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 53.4% / 46.6% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 91.3% / 8.7% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 74.7% / 25.3% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 48.2% / 51.8% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 26.5% / 73.5% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 12.3% / 87.7% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 4.9% / 95.1% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 29.08.2026
FC Arouca
6th place · 6 pts after 3Last 5 matches · latest first
- 23.08.2026 away Porto 0:2
- 16.08.2026 home Moreirense 4:0
- 08.08.2026 away Guimaraes 1:0
- 16.05.2026 home Tondela 3:1
- 11.05.2026 away Gil Vicente 3:1
Maritimo Madeira
4th place · 7 pts after 3Last 5 matches · latest first
- 22.08.2026 home Academico Viseu 2:2
- 16.08.2026 away Famalicao 2:1
- 08.08.2026 home Casa Pia 1:0
- 27.05.2023 away Estoril 1:3
- 19.05.2023 home Vizela 1:0
This season: FC Arouca at home vs Maritimo Madeira away
| Metric | FC Arouca · at home | Maritimo Madeira · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 1 | 1 |
| W–D–L | 1–0–0 | 1–0–0 |
| Goals scored per match | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| xG for per match | 2.14 | 1.61 |
| xG against per match | 0.49 | 0.59 |
| Shots on target per match | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| Corners per match | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 100% |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 100% |
Head-to-head · Last 4 meetings
- 08.04.2023 FC Arouca 1:0 Maritimo Madeira
- 23.10.2022 Maritimo Madeira 1:1 FC Arouca
- 14.02.2022 FC Arouca 0:3 Maritimo Madeira
- 13.09.2021 Maritimo Madeira 2:2 FC Arouca
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
FC Arouca host Maritimo Madeira in a Liga Portugal meeting where the home side holds a slight but credible edge. The overall outlook points toward a competitive match rather than a one-sided contest, with the home advantage providing the main distinction between the teams. A result supporting FC Arouca or a draw fits the available assessment.
The game is expected to produce a moderate amount of attacking activity. Both teams scoring remains difficult to call, so the match could develop either through a balanced exchange of chances or a narrow home victory if FC Arouca make better use of their opportunities. Maritimo Madeira should remain capable of competing across the match, particularly if they keep the contest compact and avoid allowing the hosts to control the rhythm. Overall, FC Arouca appear marginally better placed, but the balance of the fixture leaves room for a draw.
What matters before kick-off
Primeira Liga Matchweek 4 Fixture
FC Arouca hosts Marítimo Madeira on Matchweek 4 of the 2026–27 Primeira Liga season.
Marítimo Return to Top Flight
Marítimo returned to the Portuguese top flight for the 2026–27 season after earning promotion from Liga Portugal 2.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.