FC Arouca — Maritimo Madeira: Win probabilities, 29.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 72.8% |
| 12 | 71.5% | |
| X2 | 55.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 53.4% / 46.6% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 91.3% / 8.7% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 74.7% / 25.3% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 48.2% / 51.8% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 26.5% / 73.5% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 12.3% / 87.7% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 4.9% / 95.1% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
FC Arouca host Maritimo Madeira in a Liga Portugal meeting where the home side holds a slight but credible edge. The overall outlook points toward a competitive match rather than a one-sided contest, with the home advantage providing the main distinction between the teams. A result supporting FC Arouca or a draw fits the available assessment.
The game is expected to produce a moderate amount of attacking activity. Both teams scoring remains difficult to call, so the match could develop either through a balanced exchange of chances or a narrow home victory if FC Arouca make better use of their opportunities. Maritimo Madeira should remain capable of competing across the match, particularly if they keep the contest compact and avoid allowing the hosts to control the rhythm. Overall, FC Arouca appear marginally better placed, but the balance of the fixture leaves room for a draw.
What matters before kick-off
Primeira Liga Matchweek 4 Fixture
FC Arouca hosts Marítimo Madeira on Matchweek 4 of the 2026–27 Primeira Liga season.
Marítimo Return to Top Flight
Marítimo returned to the Portuguese top flight for the 2026–27 season after earning promotion from Liga Portugal 2.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.