FC Famalicao — Gil Vicente Barcelos: Win probabilities, 30.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 77.9% |
| 12 | 71.1% | |
| X2 | 51.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 50.7% / 49.3% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 90.3% / 9.7% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 73.4% / 26.6% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 46.2% / 53.8% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 24.8% / 75.2% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 11.2% / 88.8% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 4.4% / 95.6% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 30.08.2026
FC Famalicao
15th place · 1 pts after 3Last 5 matches · latest first
- 23.08.2026 away Santa Clara 0:1
- 16.08.2026 home Maritimo 1:2
- 07.08.2026 away Estoril 1:1
- 16.05.2026 home Alverca 1:0
- 11.05.2026 away Estrela 0:0
Gil Vicente Barcelos
5th place · 7 pts after 3Last 5 matches · latest first
- 24.08.2026 home Casa Pia 2:0
- 16.08.2026 away Sp Braga 0:0
- 09.08.2026 home Rio Ave 1:0
- 16.05.2026 away Sp Lisbon 0:3
- 11.05.2026 home Arouca 1:3
This season: FC Famalicao at home vs Gil Vicente Barcelos away
| Metric | FC Famalicao · at home | Gil Vicente Barcelos · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 1 | 1 |
| W–D–L | 0–0–1 | 0–1–0 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| xG for per match | 0.59 | — |
| xG against per match | 1.61 | — |
| Shots on target per match | 4.00 | — |
| Corners per match | 5.00 | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 0% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 01.02.2026 Gil Vicente Barcelos 5:0 FC Famalicao
- 24.08.2025 FC Famalicao 0:0 Gil Vicente Barcelos
- 17.02.2025 Gil Vicente Barcelos 0:2 FC Famalicao
- 14.09.2024 FC Famalicao 1:1 Gil Vicente Barcelos
- 29.03.2024 Gil Vicente Barcelos 1:2 FC Famalicao
- 04.11.2023 FC Famalicao 3:1 Gil Vicente Barcelos
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
FC Famalicao meet Gil Vicente Barcelos in Liga Portugal on 30 August 2026, with the hosts holding a slight but credible advantage. The assessment points towards a medium-scoring match, suggesting a contest where neither side is expected to dominate consistently. FC Famalicao’s home setting gives them the stronger position in the overall evaluation, although the gap between the teams is not substantial.
The possibility of both teams scoring remains finely balanced, so the match could develop in either direction depending on which side makes better use of its opportunities. A draw is a realistic alternative to a narrow home win, and a controlled, closely contested game appears more likely than an open, high-scoring encounter. The 1X signal reflects this outlook: FC Famalicao are favoured to avoid defeat, while Gil Vicente Barcelos remain capable of making the result uncertain.
What matters before kick-off
Team Squad Absences
Umar Abubakar is unavailable for FC Famalicão, while Gil Vicente are missing Santi García, Mohamed Bamba, Arthur Tchaptchet, and Walace França.
Early Season Form
Gil Vicente won both of their opening Liga Portugal matches of the season without conceding a goal, while FC Famalicão have collected just one point from three games.
Home Head-to-Head Record
FC Famalicão hold a strong historical home record against Gil Vicente, having won 27 of their 43 meetings at Estádio Municipal de Famalicão.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.