SC Braga — Vitoria SC Guimaraes: Win probabilities, 31.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 79.8% |
| 12 | 72.8% | |
| X2 | 47.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 51.3% / 48.7% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 91.3% / 8.7% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 75.1% / 24.9% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 48.6% / 51.4% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 26.8% / 73.2% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 12.5% / 87.5% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 5.0% / 95.0% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
SC Braga have a slight edge over Vitoria SC Guimaraes in this Liga Portugal meeting, with the home side favoured to control more of the match. The assessment carries a high level of confidence in that narrow advantage, although it does not point to a one-sided contest. Vitoria SC Guimaraes remain capable of keeping the game close, particularly if they manage to limit SC Braga’s control in possession and avoid conceding early.
The scoring outlook is medium, suggesting a match with some attacking threat but not necessarily an open exchange from the start. Whether both teams score is finely balanced, so the game could develop either into a cautious home win or a competitive draw. The most plausible scorelines include 1-1, 1-0 and 2-0, reflecting a relatively tight contest with SC Braga marginally better placed. The broader result signal favours SC Braga avoiding defeat.
What matters before kick-off
SC Braga Schedule
Less than four days before hosting Vitória SC, SC Braga played out a 0-0 draw away against Austria Vienna in UEFA Conference League qualifying.
Recent H2H Record
In the previous league matchup between the two sides at Estádio Municipal de Braga in February 2026, SC Braga secured a 3-2 victory over Vitória SC.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.