SL Benfica — Celtic Glasgow: Win probabilities, 15.10.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
78.4%
Home win
SL Benfica
X
14.2%
Draw
W2
7.3%
Away win
Celtic Glasgow
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1X92.7%
Both teams to score
Yes50.8%
Totals 2.5
Over68.6%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 92.7% |
| 12 | 85.8% | |
| X2 | 21.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 50.8% / 49.2% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.6% / 3.4% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 87.2% / 12.8% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 68.6% / 31.4% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 47.1% / 52.9% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 28.1% / 71.9% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 14.7% / 85.3% |
Goal distribution model
SL Benfica × Celtic Glasgow
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
3.4%
0:1
1.8%
0:2
0.9%
0:3
0.2%
0:4
0.0%
0:5
0.0%
1
1:0
7.6%
1:1
6.7%
1:2
2.4%
1:3
0.6%
1:4
0.1%
1:5
0.0%
2
2:0
11.1%
2:1
8.6%
2:2
3.3%
2:3
0.9%
2:4
0.2%
2:5
0.0%
3
3:0
10.3%
3:1
7.9%
3:2
3.1%
3:3
0.8%
3:4
0.2%
3:5
0.0%
4
4:0
7.1%
4:1
5.5%
4:2
2.1%
4:3
0.5%
4:4
0.1%
4:5
0.0%
5
5:0
3.9%
5:1
3.0%
5:2
1.2%
5:3
0.3%
5:4
0.1%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
2:011.1%
3:010.3%
2:18.6%
3:17.9%
1:07.6%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 15.10.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 20.09.2026 away Porto 1:3
- 13.09.2026 home Gil Vicente 3:1
- 09.09.2026 away Moreirense 4:0
- 05.09.2026 away Maritimo 3:0
- 31.08.2026 home Estoril 2:1
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 20.09.2026 home Rangers 0:1
- 09.09.2026 away St Johnstone 1:0
- 05.09.2026 away St Mirren 2:1
- 02.09.2026 home Aberdeen 3:0
- 29.08.2026 home Falkirk 2:1
Head-to-head
No previous meetings found in the available data.
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Odds movement
| X | was 5.75 → now 6.00 |
| W2 | was 9.00 → now 11.00 |
Check current terms · 1WIN18+
Bonus up to $500
Sports betting, live markets and mobile app. Available only to users of legal gambling age in eligible regions.
Check available odds ↗
Other matches
Tools
Check the numbers before deciding
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.