SK Sturm Graz — NK Celje: Win probabilities, 05.11.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
61.8%
Home win
SK Sturm Graz
X
21.2%
Draw
W2
17.0%
Away win
NK Celje
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1X83.0%
Both teams to score
Yes59.4%
Totals 2.5
Over63.5%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 83.0% |
| 12 | 78.8% | |
| X2 | 38.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 59.4% / 40.6% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.5% / 4.5% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 84.5% / 15.5% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 63.5% / 36.5% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 41.3% / 58.7% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 23.2% / 76.8% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 11.4% / 88.6% |
Goal distribution model
SK Sturm Graz × NK Celje
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
4.5%
0:1
3.4%
0:2
2.2%
0:3
0.8%
0:4
0.2%
0:5
0.0%
1
1:0
7.6%
1:1
9.7%
1:2
4.9%
1:3
1.8%
1:4
0.5%
1:5
0.1%
2
2:0
9.1%
2:1
9.8%
2:2
5.3%
2:3
1.9%
2:4
0.5%
2:5
0.1%
3
3:0
6.6%
3:1
7.2%
3:2
3.9%
3:3
1.4%
3:4
0.4%
3:5
0.1%
4
4:0
3.6%
4:1
3.9%
4:2
2.1%
4:3
0.8%
4:4
0.2%
4:5
0.0%
5
5:0
1.6%
5:1
1.7%
5:2
0.9%
5:3
0.3%
5:4
0.1%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
2:19.8%
1:19.7%
2:09.1%
1:07.6%
3:17.2%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 05.11.2026
SK Sturm Graz
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 22.10.2026 home Olympique Marseille 1:0
- 15.10.2026 away AFC Bournemouth 0:3
- 16.09.2026 home Stade Rennais FC 0:0
- 11.08.2026 home Fenerbahce Istanbul 0:1
- 05.08.2026 away Fenerbahce Istanbul 0:2
NK Celje
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 22.10.2026 home FC Salzburg 2:2
- 15.10.2026 home AC Omonia Nicosia 0:3
- 16.09.2026 away Bayer Leverkusen 0:2
- 11.08.2026 home FC Ararat-Armenia 2:0
- 04.08.2026 away FC Ararat-Armenia 1:2
Head-to-head
No previous meetings found in the available data.
Sources: oddmind.app. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
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How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.