SK Sturm Graz — Fenerbahce Istanbul: Win probabilities, 11.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 44.8% |
| 12 | 78.9% | |
| X2 | 76.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 62.7% / 37.3% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.5% / 3.5% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 84.3% / 15.7% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 64.5% / 35.5% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 42.4% / 57.6% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 24.1% / 75.9% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 12.0% / 88.0% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
SK Sturm Graz face Fenerbahce Istanbul in the UEFA Champions League, Qualification, with the visitors holding a slight edge in the assessment. The confidence is moderate, so the matchup appears competitive rather than one-sided. Fenerbahce Istanbul are marginally better placed to control the outcome, but SK Sturm Graz remain capable of making the contest difficult, particularly if they can maintain pressure and turn their opportunities into goals.
The scoring outlook points toward an open match in which both teams are likely to find the net. That expectation suggests a game with several attacking moments, although the overall market signal leans toward a lower total than the high-scoring tendency might initially imply. A balanced draw remains a realistic possibility, while a narrow Fenerbahce Istanbul victory is the clearest result direction. SK Sturm Graz will need to stay organised without becoming too passive, as Fenerbahce Istanbul have the slight advantage in the pre-match evaluation.
What matters before kick-off
First-leg result
Fenerbahce carry a two-goal advantage into the second leg after defeating Sturm Graz 2-0 in the opening fixture in Istanbul.
Fenerbahce team news
Fenerbahce defender Jayden Oosterwolde is ruled out of the return leg against Sturm Graz after sustaining an injury in the first leg.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.