NK Celje — FC Ararat-Armenia: Win probabilities, 11.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 87.2% |
| 12 | 80.8% | |
| X2 | 32.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 54.8% / 45.2% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.5% / 4.5% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 83.9% / 16.1% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 62.7% / 37.3% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 40.5% / 59.5% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 22.6% / 77.4% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 10.9% / 89.1% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
NK Celje enter this UEFA Champions League qualification tie with a moderate but clear analytical advantage over FC Ararat-Armenia. The available assessment points towards stronger prospects for the hosts, although the gap is not presented as decisive. That makes the home side the more convincing choice in the outcome market, while FC Ararat-Armenia still have enough potential to keep the contest competitive.
The scoring outlook is relatively open, with a high-scoring match considered more likely than a tightly controlled encounter. Whether both teams find the net is less certain, so the game could develop in different ways depending on how effectively NK Celje impose their attacking pressure. The most plausible scorelines are 2:0, 2:1 and 1:0, reflecting both the hosts’ edge and some uncertainty over the visitors’ contribution. Overall, NK Celje look better placed, but the moderate confidence level calls for a measured assessment rather than an expectation of a straightforward match.
What matters before kick-off
First leg result
FC Ararat-Armenia secured a 2-1 victory over NK Celje in the first leg of the UEFA Champions League third qualifying round in Yerevan.
NK Celje recent domestic form
Ahead of the second leg, NK Celje ended a five-match winless streak across all competitions by defeating Olimpija Ljubljana 1-0 in the Slovenian PrvaLiga.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.