NEC Nijmegen — Olympiacos Piraeus: Win probabilities, 11.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 62.2% |
| 12 | 71.9% | |
| X2 | 65.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 60.0% / 40.0% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 92.8% / 7.2% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 80.0% / 20.0% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 55.1% / 44.9% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 32.7% / 67.3% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 16.6% / 83.4% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 7.3% / 92.7% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
NEC Nijmegen and Olympiacos Piraeus appear evenly matched in this UEFA Champions League qualification tie. The available assessment points to a medium-scoring contest, with neither side holding a clear overall advantage. That suggests a game likely to be decided by the balance between NEC Nijmegen’s home setting and Olympiacos Piraeus’s ability to remain competitive away from home.
Both teams are likely to score, making an open and closely contested match more plausible than a one-sided affair. The most consistent scoreline expectation is a draw, with 1:1 standing out, while 1:2 and 2:1 also reflect the narrow margin between the sides. Overall, the outlook is balanced, with a slight lean toward Olympiacos Piraeus avoiding defeat rather than a firm prediction of either team winning.
What matters before kick-off
First leg ended in a draw
The first leg of the UEFA Champions League third qualifying round between Olympiacos and NEC Nijmegen ended in a 0-0 draw in Piraeus on August 4, 2026.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.