FK Kauno Zalgiris — GNK Dinamo Zagreb: Win probabilities, 11.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 33.2% |
| 12 | 78.9% | |
| X2 | 87.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 50.7% / 49.3% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.9% / 6.1% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 80.8% / 19.2% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 57.2% / 42.8% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 34.8% / 65.2% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 18.1% / 81.9% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 8.2% / 91.8% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
FK Kauno Zalgiris face GNK Dinamo Zagreb in the UEFA Champions League qualification on 11 August 2026. The available assessment gives GNK Dinamo Zagreb the clearer overall edge, although the moderate confidence level suggests that the match should be approached with some caution rather than as a one-sided certainty. FK Kauno Zalgiris will need to stay compact and make the most of limited attacking opportunities, while GNK Dinamo Zagreb are expected to have the stronger platform for controlling the game.
The scoring outlook is medium, pointing towards a match with a manageable number of goals rather than an open contest. Whether both teams find the net is finely balanced, so the game could develop in more than one direction depending on the opening exchanges. The projected scorelines include 0:2 and 0:1 in favour of GNK Dinamo Zagreb, alongside a 1:1 draw, reflecting the visitors’ advantage but also the possibility of a close qualification tie.
What matters before kick-off
First-leg result
Dinamo Zagreb secured a commanding 5-0 victory over Kauno Zalgiris in the first leg of their Champions League third qualifying round tie.
Rest before second leg
Dinamo Zagreb had their domestic league fixture postponed over the weekend to afford them extra preparation time ahead of the second leg.
Domestic victory for Kauno Zalgiris
Kauno Zalgiris bounced back in domestic competition over the weekend with a 2-0 victory against Hegelmann to maintain their lead in the Lithuanian top flight.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.