FK Crvena Zvezda Belgrade — Hapoel Be`er Sheva FC: Win probabilities, 11.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 94.0% |
| 12 | 88.9% | |
| X2 | 17.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 45.6% / 54.4% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 97.4% / 2.6% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 86.8% / 13.2% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 69.0% / 31.0% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 47.6% / 52.4% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 28.6% / 71.4% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 15.0% / 85.0% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
FK Crvena Zvezda Belgrade meet Hapoel Be`er Sheva FC in the UEFA Champions League Qualification on 11 August 2026. The available assessment gives FK Crvena Zvezda Belgrade a clear advantage, with high confidence in the home side’s stronger overall outlook. That points to a match in which the hosts are expected to control more of the contest and create the more consistent threat.
The scoring profile suggests an open game with several opportunities, although the assessment does not establish a clear view on whether both teams will score. The most plausible scorelines listed are 2-0, 3-0 and 1-0, all of which favour FK Crvena Zvezda Belgrade while allowing for different levels of attacking efficiency. Hapoel Be`er Sheva FC will need to remain compact and make the most of limited chances, while the hosts’ priority will be to turn their territorial and attacking edge into an early lead.
What matters before kick-off
Hapoel Be'er Sheva hold a 1-0 first-leg advantage
Hapoel Be'er Sheva won the first leg 1-0 courtesy of a 38th-minute goal from Zahi Ahmed. Hapoel defender Matan Baltaxa was sent off in the second half and is suspended for the return leg.
Crvena Zvezda warmed up with a domestic victory
Crvena Zvezda defeated Novi Pazar 2-0 in the Serbian SuperLiga on August 8 with goals from Aleksandar Katai and Jay Enem. Hapoel Be'er Sheva had no weekend fixture as the Israeli Premier League season has not yet started.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.