Olympique Lyon — Sparta Prague: Win probabilities, 11.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 89.7% |
| 12 | 85.3% | |
| X2 | 25.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 53.6% / 46.4% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 97.1% / 2.9% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 86.1% / 13.9% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 67.7% / 32.3% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 46.1% / 53.9% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 27.2% / 72.8% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 14.1% / 85.9% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Olympique Lyon enter this UEFA Champions League, Qualification tie with a clear advantage over Sparta Prague. The available assessment points to the hosts as the stronger side, with a high level of confidence behind that view. Their attacking outlook is also positive, suggesting a match that could produce several goals rather than a tightly controlled, low-scoring contest. Sparta Prague will need to remain compact and manage the pressure effectively, particularly if Olympique Lyon establish an early rhythm.
The possibility of both teams scoring is balanced, so the main expectation is not based on one specific pattern of chances. Olympique Lyon could control more of the match and create the clearer opportunities, while Sparta Prague may still find openings if the game becomes stretched. The most plausible scorelines are 2-0 and 3-0, with 2-1 also reflecting the possibility of a competitive away response. Overall, the analysis gives Olympique Lyon a distinct edge, while leaving room for an open and active contest.
What matters before kick-off
First-leg result
Sparta Prague holds a 2-1 aggregate lead entering the second leg of the UEFA Champions League third qualifying round following their victory over Lyon in the opening match on August 4, 2026.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.