Match intelligence

SK Slovan Bratislava — FC Iberia 1999: Win probabilities, 29.07.2026

League: UEFA Champions League, Qualification · Kick-off:

Full time

Final result

× Prediction missed
SK Slovan Bratislava1
:
1FC Iberia 1999
Locked signal W1 Probability 72.6% Verdict Miss
Mathematical model

Win probabilities

Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin

Odds updated
W1 72.6% Home win SK Slovan Bratislava
X 17.6% Draw
W2 9.8% Away win FC Iberia 1999
Market matrix

Markets

Double chance
1X88.8%
Both teams to score
No52.8%
Totals 2.5
Over55.7%

All calculated markets

MarketSelectionProbability
Double chance1X88.8%
1280.5%
X230.6%
Both teams to scoreYes/No47.2% / 52.8%
Totals 0.5 Over/Under 94.1% / 5.9%
Totals 1.5 Over/Under 79.2% / 20.8%
Totals 2.5 Over/Under 55.7% / 44.3%
Totals 3.5 Over/Under 33.3% / 66.7%
Totals 4.5 Over/Under 17.0% / 83.0%
Totals 5.5 Over/Under 7.5% / 92.5%
Goal distribution model

Score probability heatmap

Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally

SK Slovan Bratislava × FC Iberia 1999
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0 5.9%
0:1 3.6%
0:2 1.5%
0:3 0.4%
0:4 0.1%
0:5 0.0%
1
1:0 11.3%
1:1 9.3%
1:2 3.3%
1:3 0.8%
1:4 0.2%
1:5 0.0%
2
2:0 12.7%
2:1 9.5%
2:2 3.6%
2:3 0.9%
2:4 0.2%
2:5 0.0%
3
3:0 9.2%
3:1 6.9%
3:2 2.6%
3:3 0.6%
3:4 0.1%
3:5 0.0%
4
4:0 4.9%
4:1 3.7%
4:2 1.4%
4:3 0.3%
4:4 0.1%
4:5 0.0%
5
5:0 2.1%
5:1 1.6%
5:2 0.6%
5:3 0.2%
5:4 0.0%
5:5 0.0%
Most likely scores
2:012.7%
1:011.3%
2:19.5%
1:19.3%
3:09.2%
✦
AI analysis

Match preview

Model · GPT 5.6 Luna

SK Slovan Bratislava enter this UEFA Champions League qualifying tie as the clearly stronger side according to the available assessment. FC Iberia 1999 face a demanding challenge away from home, with the balance of the matchup pointing firmly toward the Slovak champions. The hosts should be expected to control more of the game and create the clearer opportunities, although the information available does not make an early breakthrough inevitable.

The scoring outlook is relatively open, suggesting that Slovan Bratislava may have several chances to build a convincing result. At the same time, whether FC Iberia 1999 find the net is less certain, with both teams scoring assessed as evenly balanced. The most plausible scorelines are 2-0, 1-0 and 3-0, all of which underline the home side's advantage while leaving room for a controlled rather than one-sided contest. Overall, SK Slovan Bratislava have a strong platform, but the precise margin will depend on how efficiently they convert their opportunities.

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How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.

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