Gornik Zabrze — Fenerbahce Istanbul: Win probabilities, 29.07.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 37.0% |
| 12 | 78.8% | |
| X2 | 84.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 48.7% / 51.3% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.9% / 6.1% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 76.4% / 23.6% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 52.5% / 47.5% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 30.3% / 69.7% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 14.9% / 85.1% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 6.3% / 93.7% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Gornik Zabrze host Fenerbahce Istanbul in a UEFA Champions League qualification tie where the visitors hold the clearer advantage, although the moderate confidence level suggests the matchup should not be treated as one-sided. Fenerbahce are assessed as the stronger team, while Gornik Zabrze will have home advantage and the opportunity to make the first leg competitive.
The expected profile is medium-scoring, with projected scorelines of 0-1, 0-2 and 1-2 pointing toward a narrow Fenerbahce win rather than a dominant margin. The possibility of both teams scoring is finely balanced, so Gornik Zabrze may need to be efficient in their attacking moments while limiting the visitors' opportunities. Fenerbahce Istanbul's greater strength gives them the edge, but the overall outlook still leaves room for a closely contested match.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.