Gornik Zabrze — Fenerbahce Istanbul: Win probabilities, 29.07.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 34.7% |
| 12 | 79.6% | |
| X2 | 85.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 46.9% / 53.1% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.9% / 6.1% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 76.1% / 23.9% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 52.2% / 47.8% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 30.0% / 70.0% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 14.7% / 85.3% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 6.2% / 93.8% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Odds movement
| X1 | was 6.50 → now 6.00 |
| X | was 4.10 → now 4.33 |
Match preview
Gornik Zabrze host Fenerbahce Istanbul in a UEFA Champions League qualification tie where the visitors hold the clearer advantage, although the moderate confidence level suggests the matchup should not be treated as one-sided. Fenerbahce are assessed as the stronger team, while Gornik Zabrze will have home advantage and the opportunity to make the first leg competitive.
The expected profile is medium-scoring, with projected scorelines of 0-1, 0-2 and 1-2 pointing toward a narrow Fenerbahce win rather than a dominant margin. The possibility of both teams scoring is finely balanced, so Gornik Zabrze may need to be efficient in their attacking moments while limiting the visitors' opportunities. Fenerbahce Istanbul's greater strength gives them the edge, but the overall outlook still leaves room for a closely contested match.
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Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.