KKS Lech Poznan — AGF Aarhus: Win probabilities, 29.07.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 79.4% |
| 12 | 77.0% | |
| X2 | 43.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 60.4% / 39.6% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.0% / 5.0% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 83.5% / 16.5% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 61.6% / 38.4% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 39.3% / 60.7% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 21.6% / 78.4% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 10.3% / 89.7% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
KKS Lech Poznan have a slight edge over AGF Aarhus in this UEFA Champions League qualifying tie. The home side is assessed as the stronger team, although the margin is not large enough to make the match one-sided. Playing in Poznan may support Lech’s position, but AGF Aarhus remain capable of making the contest competitive.
The game is projected to be medium-scoring, with both teams scoring considered finely balanced rather than clearly expected. That points to a match where control may change during the ninety minutes, and where the opening goal could have significant importance. The most plausible scorelines are 1-1, 1-0, and 2-1, reflecting a narrow range between a draw and a home victory. Overall, the analytical signal favours KKS Lech Poznan avoiding defeat, with AGF Aarhus still presenting a credible challenge.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.