KKS Lech Poznan — AGF Aarhus: Win probabilities, 29.07.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 81.4% |
| 12 | 76.9% | |
| X2 | 41.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 55.6% / 44.4% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.2% / 5.8% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 80.4% / 19.6% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 57.1% / 42.9% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 34.7% / 65.3% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 18.0% / 82.0% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 8.1% / 91.9% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Odds movement
| X1 | was 1.73 → now 1.65 |
| X | was 3.70 → now 3.90 |
| X2 | was 4.33 → now 4.75 |
Match preview
KKS Lech Poznan have a slight edge over AGF Aarhus in this UEFA Champions League qualifying tie. The home side is assessed as the stronger team, although the margin is not large enough to make the match one-sided. Playing in Poznan may support Lech’s position, but AGF Aarhus remain capable of making the contest competitive.
The game is projected to be medium-scoring, with both teams scoring considered finely balanced rather than clearly expected. That points to a match where control may change during the ninety minutes, and where the opening goal could have significant importance. The most plausible scorelines are 1-1, 1-0, and 2-1, reflecting a narrow range between a draw and a home victory. Overall, the analytical signal favours KKS Lech Poznan avoiding defeat, with AGF Aarhus still presenting a credible challenge.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.