CS Universitatea Craiova — PFC Levski Sofia: Win probabilities, 29.07.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 77.2% |
| 12 | 73.5% | |
| X2 | 49.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 49.5% / 50.5% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 91.5% / 8.5% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 72.4% / 27.6% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 46.4% / 53.6% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 24.9% / 75.1% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 11.3% / 88.7% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 4.4% / 95.6% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Odds movement
| X1 | was 1.93 → now 1.87 |
| X2 | was 3.75 → now 3.90 |
Match preview
CS Universitatea Craiova have a slight edge over PFC Levski Sofia in this UEFA Champions League qualification tie. The home side is favoured to control more of the match, although the margin between the teams does not appear wide enough to rule out a competitive contest. That points towards a cautious assessment rather than a decisive prediction.
The game is expected to be medium-scoring, with both teams having a reasonable chance of finding the net, but neither outcome is clearly dominant in that regard. The most credible scenarios include a narrow Craiova victory or a draw, making the home side the safer direction in the match result market. PFC Levski Sofia should still have opportunities if they manage to stay organised and exploit spaces during transitions. Overall, the balance leans towards CS Universitatea Craiova, while a close scoreline remains the more plausible pattern.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.