FK Crvena Zvezda Belgrade — Larne FC: Win probabilities, 29.07.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 98.4% |
| 12 | 95.3% | |
| X2 | 6.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 26.2% / 73.8% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 98.1% / 1.9% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 89.3% / 10.7% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 73.7% / 26.3% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 53.4% / 46.6% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 34.0% / 66.0% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 19.0% / 81.0% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Odds movement
| X2 | was 34.00 → now 29.00 |
Match preview
FK Crvena Zvezda Belgrade come into this UEFA Champions League qualifying tie as the clearly stronger side, with a high level of confidence behind the home outcome. Larne FC face a demanding task against opponents expected to control the match, particularly in an attacking context. The available assessment points toward a high-scoring game, while also suggesting that Crvena Zvezda may be capable of preventing Larne from finding the net.
The most consistent scoreline indications favour a comfortable home victory, with 3-0, 4-0 and 2-0 the leading possibilities. Those scenarios reflect a match in which FK Crvena Zvezda Belgrade can create sustained pressure and turn territorial control into several goals, while Larne FC may struggle to maintain a threat over the full contest. The central expectation is therefore a decisive home performance rather than an evenly balanced qualification match.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.