SK Rapid — FC Santa Coloma: Win probabilities, 29.07.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 96.4% |
| 12 | 90.6% | |
| X2 | 12.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 40.1% / 59.9% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 97.3% / 2.7% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 88.2% / 11.8% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 70.9% / 29.1% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 49.9% / 50.1% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 30.6% / 69.4% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 16.5% / 83.5% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
SK Rapid enter this UEFA Conference League qualifying tie as the clearly stronger side, with a high level of confidence behind the home outcome. FC Santa Coloma face a demanding task away from home, where Rapid’s overall advantage should allow the hosts to control the rhythm and spend extended periods in attacking areas. The available assessment points towards a decisive performance rather than a closely balanced contest.
The expected scoring pattern is relatively open, although FC Santa Coloma may struggle to turn possession or occasional opportunities into a goal. A clean sheet for SK Rapid is considered likely, making a controlled victory the central scenario. Scorelines such as three-nil, two-nil or four-nil reflect the same underlying view: Rapid should create enough chances to establish a clear margin while limiting the visitors’ threat. The match is scheduled for 29 July 2026 at 18:30 UTC.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.