KF Dukagjini — FC Lugano: Win probabilities, 29.07.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 40.4% |
| 12 | 76.6% | |
| X2 | 83.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 51.7% / 48.3% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.3% / 6.7% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 77.8% / 22.2% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 53.4% / 46.6% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 31.1% / 68.9% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 15.4% / 84.6% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 6.6% / 93.4% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Odds movement
| X | was 3.60 → now 3.75 |
Match preview
KF Dukagjini face FC Lugano in a UEFA Conference League qualifying tie that appears finely balanced, although the visitors hold a slight edge. The low confidence attached to that assessment suggests that the match may be decided by small details rather than a clear difference in strength. Lugano could have the greater capacity to control important phases, but Dukagjini should remain competitive, particularly if they keep the game structured and avoid conceding early.
The overall outlook points toward a medium-scoring contest, with both teams scoring remaining difficult to call. That makes the match potentially open without necessarily becoming one-sided. A narrow FC Lugano victory is one plausible scenario, while a draw also fits the cautious nature of the forecast. KF Dukagjini will need to balance defensive discipline with enough ambition to threaten in attack, whereas FC Lugano may look to use their slight advantage to manage the tempo and create the clearer opportunities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.