KF Dukagjini — FC Lugano: Win probabilities, 29.07.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 37.4% |
| 12 | 78.1% | |
| X2 | 84.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 48.0% / 52.0% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.3% / 6.7% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 75.8% / 24.2% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 51.4% / 48.6% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 29.2% / 70.8% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 14.1% / 85.9% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 5.9% / 94.1% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
KF Dukagjini face FC Lugano in a UEFA Conference League qualifying tie that appears finely balanced, although the visitors hold a slight edge. The low confidence attached to that assessment suggests that the match may be decided by small details rather than a clear difference in strength. Lugano could have the greater capacity to control important phases, but Dukagjini should remain competitive, particularly if they keep the game structured and avoid conceding early.
The overall outlook points toward a medium-scoring contest, with both teams scoring remaining difficult to call. That makes the match potentially open without necessarily becoming one-sided. A narrow FC Lugano victory is one plausible scenario, while a draw also fits the cautious nature of the forecast. KF Dukagjini will need to balance defensive discipline with enough ambition to threaten in attack, whereas FC Lugano may look to use their slight advantage to manage the tempo and create the clearer opportunities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.