FC CSKA 1948 — FC Spartak Trnava: Win probabilities, 28.07.2026
Result
We predicted: 1X · Verdict: Hit
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 80.3% |
| 12 | 73.4% | |
| X2 | 46.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 49.5% / 50.5% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 91.3% / 8.7% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 73.7% / 26.3% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 47.4% / 52.6% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 25.7% / 74.3% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 11.8% / 88.2% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 4.7% / 95.3% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Odds movement
| X1 | was 1.85 → now 1.75 |
| X2 | was 3.90 → now 4.33 |
Match preview
FC CSKA 1948 meet FC Spartak Trnava in the UEFA Conference League qualification, with the hosts holding a slight but credible edge in the pre-match assessment. The overall outlook points towards a medium-scoring contest rather than an open goal-fest, suggesting that the match could be decided by small differences in control and efficiency.
The draw remains a significant possibility, and the most plausible scoreline is 1:1. However, 1:0 and 2:0 also fit the projected shape of the game, reflecting the advantage given to FC CSKA 1948. Whether both teams score is difficult to separate, so neither side has a clear analytical edge in that specific market. Overall, the 1X signal favours FC CSKA 1948 avoiding defeat, while FC Spartak Trnava remain capable of keeping the contest close.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.