Apollon Limassol — FC Dila Gori: Win probabilities, 28.07.2026
Result
We predicted: X1 · Verdict: Hit
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 89.7% |
| 12 | 82.7% | |
| X2 | 27.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 49.2% / 50.8% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.4% / 4.6% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 82.2% / 17.8% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 60.6% / 39.4% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 38.3% / 61.7% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 20.8% / 79.2% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 9.8% / 90.2% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Odds movement
| X2 | was 8.00 → now 7.50 |
Match preview
Apollon Limassol look clearly stronger than FC Dila Gori ahead of this UEFA Conference League qualification tie. The assessment gives the hosts a high-confidence advantage, suggesting that Apollon should control more of the match and create the clearer opportunities. FC Dila Gori may need to remain compact and disciplined, particularly if Apollon establish pressure early.
The expected profile is medium-scoring rather than an open contest with constant chances. A clean-sheet win for Apollon Limassol appears more likely than a game in which both sides find the net, although the possibility of FC Dila Gori scoring remains difficult to rule out. The most plausible scorelines point toward a controlled home victory, with 2-0, 1-0 and 3-0 the leading scenarios. Overall, the matchup favours Apollon Limassol, but the visitors' defensive resistance should influence whether the margin stays narrow or becomes more comfortable.
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Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.