Riga FC — FK Vardar Skopje: Win probabilities, 28.07.2026
Result
We predicted: X1 · Verdict: Hit
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 86.7% |
| 12 | 80.8% | |
| X2 | 32.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 57.3% / 42.7% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.8% / 4.2% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 85.4% / 14.6% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 65.0% / 35.0% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 43.0% / 57.0% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 24.6% / 75.4% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 12.3% / 87.7% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Odds movement
| X1 | was 1.36 → now 1.42 |
| X | was 4.50 → now 4.33 |
| X2 | was 7.00 → now 6.00 |
Match preview
Riga FC go into this UEFA Conference League qualifying tie as the stronger side, although the assessment carries only moderate confidence. The hosts are expected to take the initiative, with their attacking approach likely to create a match with several scoring opportunities. FK Vardar Skopje will need to remain organised without the ball and make effective use of their chances when they emerge.
The scoring outlook points towards an open contest rather than a tightly controlled defensive encounter. Riga FC have the clearer overall edge, but the possibility of FK Vardar Skopje finding the net keeps the match from looking completely one-sided. The expectation that both teams will score remains finely balanced, so the hosts' advantage is best viewed in the context of a potentially competitive game. Riga FC appear more likely to control the key phases, while FK Vardar Skopje could still make the tie uncomfortable if they respond well to sustained pressure.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.