Riga FC — FK Vardar Skopje: Win probabilities, 28.07.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 86.7% |
| 12 | 80.8% | |
| X2 | 32.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 57.3% / 42.7% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.8% / 4.2% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 85.4% / 14.6% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 65.0% / 35.0% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 43.0% / 57.0% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 24.6% / 75.4% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 12.3% / 87.7% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Riga FC go into this UEFA Conference League qualifying tie as the stronger side, although the assessment carries only moderate confidence. The hosts are expected to take the initiative, with their attacking approach likely to create a match with several scoring opportunities. FK Vardar Skopje will need to remain organised without the ball and make effective use of their chances when they emerge.
The scoring outlook points towards an open contest rather than a tightly controlled defensive encounter. Riga FC have the clearer overall edge, but the possibility of FK Vardar Skopje finding the net keeps the match from looking completely one-sided. The expectation that both teams will score remains finely balanced, so the hosts' advantage is best viewed in the context of a potentially competitive game. Riga FC appear more likely to control the key phases, while FK Vardar Skopje could still make the tie uncomfortable if they respond well to sustained pressure.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.