SK Beveren — Oud-Heverlee Leuven: Win probabilities, 06.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 69.4% |
| 12 | 73.3% | |
| X2 | 57.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 64.9% / 35.1% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.1% / 5.9% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 84.5% / 15.5% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 61.8% / 38.2% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 39.5% / 60.5% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 21.8% / 78.2% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 10.4% / 89.6% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
SK Beveren have a slight edge over Oud-Heverlee Leuven in this First Division A meeting, although the moderate confidence level points to a competitive contest rather than a one-sided affair. The home side may be better placed to take control, particularly with home advantage, but the available signals do not suggest a wide gap between the teams.
The match is expected to have an open scoring pattern, with both SK Beveren and Oud-Heverlee Leuven likely to find the net. That makes a cautious approach difficult to sustain for the full game and leaves room for the balance to shift after the opening goal. Overall, the outlook favours SK Beveren against defeat, while a draw remains a credible outcome if Oud-Heverlee Leuven can match the hosts’ attacking threat. Expect an active match with chances at both ends rather than a tightly closed encounter.
What matters before kick-off
Oud-Heverlee Leuven's tough start to the season
Oud-Heverlee Leuven suffered a 1-0 defeat against KAA Gent on Thursday, September 3, 2026, marking their fourth consecutive league loss to open the season.
SK Beveren's unbeaten home streak
SK Beveren enter the fixture against Oud-Heverlee Leuven holding a 490-day unbeaten streak in competitive home matches at the Freethielstadion.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.