SK Beveren — Lommel SK: Win probabilities, 09.10.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 74.7% |
| 12 | 76.2% | |
| X2 | 49.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 63.2% / 36.8% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.3% / 4.7% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 84.1% / 15.9% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 62.7% / 37.3% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 40.5% / 59.5% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 22.6% / 77.4% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 10.9% / 89.1% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 09.10.2026
SK Beveren
10th place · 9 pts after 7Last 5 matches · latest first
- 20.09.2026 away Kortrijk 0:1
- 12.09.2026 home St Truiden 2:0
- 06.09.2026 home Oud-Heverlee Leuven 3:0
- 28.08.2026 away Genk 0:4
- 22.08.2026 away Waregem 0:4
Lommel SK
12th place · 8 pts after 7Last 5 matches · latest first
- 19.09.2026 home Mechelen 0:0
- 12.09.2026 away St. Gilloise 0:5
- 04.09.2026 home Club Brugge 0:1
- 29.08.2026 away Cercle Brugge 1:0
- 23.08.2026 home Westerlo 4:0
This season: SK Beveren at home vs Lommel SK away
| Metric | SK Beveren · at home | Lommel SK · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 3 | 3 |
| W–D–L | 3–0–0 | 1–1–1 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.00 | 0.67 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| xG for per match | 1.67 | 1.26 |
| xG against per match | 0.96 | 2.17 |
| Shots on target per match | 4.67 | 3.00 |
| Corners per match | 3.00 | 3.33 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 33% | 33% |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 33% |
Head-to-head
No previous meetings found in the available data.
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
SK Beveren host Lommel SK in a First Division A fixture that pits two mid-table sides against each other, though the context at this ground points to a meaningful gap. Beveren sit 10th with 9 points from 7 matches, while Lommel SK are just below in 12th on 8 points, so the league table alone suggests a tight contest. The split between home and away form, however, is where the picture shifts, and it tilts the preview toward the hosts carrying a clear edge on their own pitch.
Beveren have been close to flawless at home this season: three matches played, three won, six goals scored and none conceded. Their chance quality profile backs this up, as they consistently create more than they allow in front of their own supporters. Lommel SK, by contrast, have conceded six goals in three away trips while scoring only twice, and the underlying chance quality on the road is firmly against them.
Overall form elsewhere is mixed for both sides, which is why a hard-fought, high-scoring game remains plausible with both teams likely to find the net. On balance, the hosts look the stronger side here, with Lommel SK capable of responding but facing a difficult evening.
What matters before kick-off
SK Beveren's home record
SK Beveren enter the match unbeaten at home this season at the Freethielstadion. They have won all three of their home league fixtures against Anderlecht, OH Leuven, and STVV.
Lommel SK's recent cup result
During the international break ahead of this fixture, Lommel SK secured a 2-0 away victory over KV Diksmuide Oostende to advance in the Croky Cup.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.