Sheffield United — Derby County: Win probabilities, 24.10.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 80.9% |
| 12 | 75.1% | |
| X2 | 44.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 57.2% / 42.8% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.5% / 6.5% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 81.2% / 18.8% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 57.2% / 42.8% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 34.8% / 65.2% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 18.1% / 81.9% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 8.2% / 91.8% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 24.10.2026
Sheffield United
11th place · 15 pts after 11Last 5 matches · latest first
- 17.10.2026 away Bristol City 1:0
- 14.10.2026 away Portsmouth 2:3
- 10.10.2026 home Lincoln 3:0
- 19.09.2026 away Stoke 1:2
- 13.09.2026 home Wolves 0:1
Derby County
23rd place · 6 pts after 11Last 5 matches · latest first
- 17.10.2026 home Stoke 0:1
- 14.10.2026 away QPR 1:4
- 10.10.2026 home Wrexham 1:1
- 19.09.2026 away Burnley 1:1
- 12.09.2026 home Birmingham 1:2
This season: Sheffield United at home vs Derby County away
| Metric | Sheffield United · at home | Derby County · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 5 | 5 |
| W–D–L | 2–1–2 | 1–1–3 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| xG for per match | 0.92 | 0.85 |
| xG against per match | 1.79 | 1.52 |
| Shots on target per match | 3.40 | 4.20 |
| Corners per match | 3.20 | 4.20 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 02.05.2026 Derby County 1:2 Sheffield United
- 01.11.2025 Sheffield United 1:3 Derby County
- 01.02.2025 Derby County 0:1 Sheffield United
- 21.09.2024 Sheffield United 1:0 Derby County
- 15.01.2022 Derby County 2:0 Sheffield United
- 25.09.2021 Sheffield United 1:0 Derby County
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Odds movement
| W2 | was 4.33 → now 4.75 |
Match preview
Sheffield United have a slight edge over Derby County ahead of their Championship meeting, with the hosts looking better positioned based on their league standing and recent performances. Sheffield United sit 11th with 15 points from 11 matches, while Derby County are 23rd with just 6 points from the same number of games. The recent form of both sides has been inconsistent, but Sheffield United have recorded two wins in their last five matches, whereas Derby County have yet to win during that period, drawing twice and losing three times.
Home advantage offers Sheffield United an additional opportunity, although their performances at Bramall Lane have been mixed. They have won two of five home matches, scoring seven goals and conceding six. Derby County have struggled defensively on the road, conceding ten goals in five away games, while their recent return of four goals scored and nine conceded highlights their difficulties at both ends of the pitch. Both teams also allow more chances than they create, suggesting that defensive weaknesses could influence the contest.
The head-to-head record provides further encouragement for Sheffield United, who have won four of the last six meetings. Their most recent encounter ended in a 2-1 victory over Derby County in 2026. A moderately scoring match appears plausible, with Sheffield United holding the stronger overall position, though their inconsistent home form leaves room for Derby County to compete.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.