Blackburn Rovers — Wrexham AFC: Win probabilities, 24.10.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 59.5% |
| 12 | 71.7% | |
| X2 | 68.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 53.3% / 46.7% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 91.5% / 8.5% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 73.9% / 26.1% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 47.7% / 52.3% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 26.0% / 74.0% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 12.0% / 88.0% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 4.8% / 95.2% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 24.10.2026
Blackburn Rovers
10th place · 15 pts after 11Last 5 matches · latest first
- 17.10.2026 away West Brom 2:3
- 13.10.2026 away Bristol City 1:0
- 10.10.2026 home Cardiff 2:1
- 19.09.2026 away Portsmouth 2:2
- 12.09.2026 home Millwall 3:1
Wrexham AFC
14th place · 14 pts after 11Last 5 matches · latest first
- 17.10.2026 home Preston 4:1
- 13.10.2026 home West Brom 1:2
- 10.10.2026 away Derby 1:1
- 19.09.2026 home Southampton 2:1
- 11.09.2026 away West Ham 0:6
This season: Blackburn Rovers at home vs Wrexham AFC away
| Metric | Blackburn Rovers · at home | Wrexham AFC · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 5 | 5 |
| W–D–L | 3–0–2 | 1–3–1 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| xG for per match | 1.42 | 1.00 |
| xG against per match | 1.23 | 1.09 |
| Shots on target per match | 4.80 | 3.20 |
| Corners per match | 5.80 | 5.40 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 40% |
Head-to-head · Last 2 meetings
- 01.01.2026 Blackburn Rovers 0:2 Wrexham AFC
- 29.11.2025 Wrexham AFC 1:1 Blackburn Rovers
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Odds movement
| W1 | was 2.70 → now 3.00 |
| W2 | was 2.60 → now 2.35 |
Match preview
Blackburn Rovers host Wrexham AFC in a Championship fixture that looks evenly balanced, with a moderate level of confidence in the overall assessment. Blackburn Rovers have won three of their last five matches, scoring 10 goals and conceding seven, which points to a generally positive run despite their most recent defeat. They sit 10th in the table with 15 points from 11 games, one place of significance ahead of a tightly grouped group of teams. Their home record offers encouragement, with three wins from five matches and nine goals scored, although seven conceded suggest there is room for improvement defensively.
Wrexham AFC arrive with a more mixed recent record, having won two, drawn one and lost two of their last five matches. They have scored eight goals but conceded 11, indicating greater defensive vulnerability over that stretch. In the table, they are 14th with 14 points, leaving little between the sides in terms of their overall campaign. Their away form has been competitive rather than dominant, with one win, three draws and one defeat in five matches. The previous meeting ended in a 2-0 victory for Wrexham AFC, providing a relevant historical reference without necessarily determining this contest. Blackburn Rovers have the home advantage, but Wrexham AFC have shown they can remain competitive on the road. A closely fought match with a moderate scoring level appears the most reasonable expectation.
What matters before kick-off
Ben Sheaf returns for Wrexham
Wrexham midfielder Ben Sheaf returned to full training ahead of the match, while Josh Windass remains sidelined with an ankle injury.
Ryoya Morishita an injury concern for Blackburn
Blackburn Rovers player Ryoya Morishita suffered an ankle injury in their previous match against West Bromwich Albion, making him an injury doubt.
Wrexham's recent victory against Preston
Wrexham head into the encounter on the back of a convincing 4-1 victory over Preston North End in their last Championship fixture.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.