Wolverhampton Wanderers — Watford FC: Win probabilities, 24.10.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 88.5% |
| 12 | 80.1% | |
| X2 | 31.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 52.4% / 47.6% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.7% / 5.3% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 82.9% / 17.1% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 60.5% / 39.5% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 38.2% / 61.8% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 20.7% / 79.3% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 9.7% / 90.3% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 24.10.2026
Wolverhampton Wanderers
8th place · 18 pts after 11Last 5 matches · latest first
- 20.10.2026 home Portsmouth 1:1
- 16.10.2026 away Burnley 2:1
- 13.10.2026 home Bolton 1:3
- 10.10.2026 away Middlesbrough 0:1
- 20.09.2026 home West Brom 1:0
Watford FC
20th place · 11 pts after 11Last 5 matches · latest first
- 17.10.2026 home Charlton 2:0
- 13.10.2026 away Cardiff 1:5
- 10.10.2026 home Burnley 0:4
- 18.09.2026 away Bristol City 0:1
- 12.09.2026 home Stoke 1:2
This season: Wolverhampton Wanderers at home vs Watford FC away
| Metric | Wolverhampton Wanderers · at home | Watford FC · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 5 | 5 |
| W–D–L | 2–2–1 | 0–1–4 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.80 | 0.40 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| xG for per match | 1.93 | 0.95 |
| xG against per match | 0.87 | 2.20 |
| Shots on target per match | 4.40 | 3.40 |
| Corners per match | 7.00 | 3.20 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 40% |
Head-to-head · Last 4 meetings
- 10.03.2022 Wolverhampton Wanderers 4:0 Watford FC
- 11.09.2021 Watford FC 0:2 Wolverhampton Wanderers
- 01.01.2020 Watford FC 2:1 Wolverhampton Wanderers
- 28.09.2019 Wolverhampton Wanderers 2:0 Watford FC
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Odds movement
| W1 | was 1.36 → now 1.42 |
| X | was 4.75 → now 4.50 |
| W2 | was 8.00 → now 7.50 |
Match preview
Wolverhampton Wanderers enter this Championship meeting with Watford FC as the clearly stronger side, although their recent form suggests some inconsistency. They have recorded two wins, one draw and two defeats in their last five matches, scoring five goals and conceding six. Their eighth-place position, with 18 points from 11 games, provides a solid foundation, while their home performances offer further encouragement. Wolverhampton Wanderers have won two of five home matches and scored nine goals, demonstrating an ability to create attacking opportunities, even if defensive stability has not been complete.
Watford FC face a more difficult challenge. They have lost four of their last five matches, conceding 12 goals and scoring only four. Their away record is particularly concerning, with no wins in five games and 10 goals conceded against just two scored. Sitting 20th with 11 points, Watford FC need a significant improvement to counter the hosts' attacking advantage. The head-to-head record also favours Wolverhampton Wanderers, who have won three of the last four meetings, including a 4-0 victory in 2022.
The overall balance points towards a home advantage, with Wolverhampton Wanderers better placed to control the contest and generate chances. A high-scoring match is plausible, though Watford FC's contribution to the scoring remains uncertain.
What matters before kick-off
Squad news ahead of kick-off
Kieran Trippier and Adam Armstrong returned to training for Wolverhampton Wanderers ahead of the Watford match. However, Rodrigo Gomes, Raúl Jiménez, Boubacar Traoré and Bertrand Traoré remain ruled out through injury.
Recent team results
César Peixoto's Wolverhampton Wanderers enter the match following a 1-1 mid-week draw against Portsmouth. Meanwhile, Alessio Dionisi's Watford ended a four-game losing streak by securing a 2-0 victory over Charlton Athletic.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.