West Ham United — Southampton FC: Win probabilities, 24.10.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 80.0% |
| 12 | 77.9% | |
| X2 | 42.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 64.3% / 35.7% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.8% / 4.2% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 86.8% / 13.2% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 66.8% / 33.2% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 45.1% / 54.9% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 26.4% / 73.6% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 13.5% / 86.5% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 24.10.2026
West Ham United
3rd place · 22 pts after 11Last 5 matches · latest first
- 17.10.2026 away Swansea 1:0
- 14.10.2026 away Lincoln 6:0
- 09.10.2026 home QPR 1:1
- 19.09.2026 away Millwall 2:2
- 11.09.2026 home Wrexham 6:0
Southampton FC
4th place · 21 pts after 11Last 5 matches · latest first
- 17.10.2026 home Bolton 0:0
- 14.10.2026 away Norwich 1:0
- 11.10.2026 home Portsmouth 1:0
- 19.09.2026 away Wrexham 1:2
- 12.09.2026 home Bristol City 4:1
This season: West Ham United at home vs Southampton FC away
| Metric | West Ham United · at home | Southampton FC · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 5 | 5 |
| W–D–L | 3–1–1 | 1–2–2 |
| Goals scored per match | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| xG for per match | 2.65 | 1.56 |
| xG against per match | 0.66 | 1.18 |
| Shots on target per match | 7.20 | 4.40 |
| Corners per match | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 80% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 19.04.2025 West Ham United 1:1 Southampton FC
- 26.12.2024 Southampton FC 0:1 West Ham United
- 02.04.2023 West Ham United 1:0 Southampton FC
- 16.10.2022 Southampton FC 1:1 West Ham United
- 26.12.2021 West Ham United 2:3 Southampton FC
- 11.09.2021 Southampton FC 0:0 West Ham United
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
West Ham United enter their Championship meeting with Southampton FC in stronger overall form, with a slight home advantage shaping the outlook. The hosts have won three and drawn two of their last five matches, scoring 16 goals and conceding just three. They also sit second in the league with 22 points from 11 games, giving them a narrow advantage over Southampton FC, who are fourth with 21 points. West Ham United’s attacking output has been particularly impressive, while their defensive record suggests they can maintain control without sacrificing their threat going forward.
Southampton FC remain credible challengers, having won three of their last five matches and conceded only three goals across that run. However, their away record is less convincing, with one win, two draws and two defeats from five games. They have scored five goals and conceded six on the road, while their chances created and allowed have been roughly balanced. In contrast, West Ham United have won three of five home matches and scored 15 goals in those games, underlining their potential to dictate the tempo.
The overall picture points towards an open contest in which both teams could find scoring opportunities. Southampton FC have enough recent form to pose a threat, but West Ham United’s home production and stronger chance creation give them a moderate edge. A competitive, potentially high-scoring match looks the most plausible scenario.
What matters before kick-off
West Ham's recent form
West Ham United host Southampton after securing back-to-back away victories over Lincoln City and Swansea City. These results extended the Hammers' unbeaten streak in the Championship to nine matches.
Southampton's league status
Southampton enter the fixture sitting eighth in the table, having been defeated only twice in the Championship so far this season despite starting the campaign with a four-point deduction.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.