Lincoln City — Burnley FC: Win probabilities, 24.10.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 62.7% |
| 12 | 72.4% | |
| X2 | 64.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 58.7% / 41.3% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 92.9% / 7.1% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 78.8% / 21.2% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 54.0% / 46.0% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 31.7% / 68.3% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 15.8% / 84.2% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 6.9% / 93.1% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 24.10.2026
Lincoln City
18th place · 12 pts after 11Last 5 matches · latest first
- 17.10.2026 away Millwall 2:2
- 14.10.2026 home West Ham 0:6
- 10.10.2026 away Sheffield United 0:3
- 19.09.2026 home Swansea 1:2
- 15.09.2026 away Bristol City 1:0
Burnley FC
22nd place · 8 pts after 11Last 5 matches · latest first
- 16.10.2026 home Wolves 1:2
- 13.10.2026 home Charlton 2:2
- 10.10.2026 away Watford 4:0
- 19.09.2026 home Derby 1:1
- 12.09.2026 away Swansea 1:3
This season: Lincoln City at home vs Burnley FC away
| Metric | Lincoln City · at home | Burnley FC · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 5 | 5 |
| W–D–L | 0–2–3 | 1–1–3 |
| Goals scored per match | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| Goals conceded per match | 2.40 | 2.20 |
| xG for per match | 1.63 | 1.46 |
| xG against per match | 1.25 | 1.63 |
| Shots on target per match | 2.80 | 5.00 |
| Corners per match | 4.40 | 4.40 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 80% |
Head-to-head
No previous meetings found in the available data.
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Odds movement
| W1 | was 2.80 → now 2.70 |
| W2 | was 2.45 → now 2.55 |
Match preview
Lincoln City face Burnley FC in a Championship encounter that looks relatively balanced, although the visitors have shown greater attacking productivity in recent matches. Lincoln City have recorded one win, one draw and three defeats across their last five games, scoring four goals and conceding thirteen. Their defensive record is a concern, particularly at home, where they have yet to win in five league matches, drawing twice and losing three times. With twelve points from eleven games, they sit 18th in the table and need greater consistency to improve their position.
Burnley FC have also experienced mixed form, collecting one win, two draws and two defeats in their last five matches. However, they have scored nine goals in that period, suggesting a more effective attack than Lincoln City's, despite conceding eight. Burnley FC are 22nd with eight points, so their league position offers little room for complacency. Away from home, they have won once in five matches, scoring eight goals but conceding eleven. Both sides have shown defensive vulnerabilities, while their chance creation and opportunities allowed have been broadly balanced in their respective home and away settings. Overall, the teams appear evenly matched, with Burnley FC holding a slight edge through their stronger recent scoring record. A competitive game with opportunities at both ends looks plausible.
What matters before kick-off
Burnley injury updates
Burnley head coach Nicky Hayen confirmed that striker Jamie Vardy will miss the match against Lincoln City due to back pain. In addition, winger Jacob Bruun Larsen is facing 10 to 12 weeks out with a stress fracture.
Historic matchup between the clubs
One of the most memorable matches between Lincoln City and Burnley came in the FA Cup in February 2017, when Lincoln won 1-0 to become the first non-league side in over a century to reach the quarter-finals of the competition.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.