Sevilla FC — Valencia CF: Win probabilities, 11.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 78.0% |
| 12 | 72.5% | |
| X2 | 49.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 47.8% / 52.2% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 90.5% / 9.5% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 70.8% / 29.2% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 44.1% / 55.9% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 23.0% / 77.0% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 10.1% / 89.9% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 3.8% / 96.2% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 11.09.2026
Sevilla FC
7th place · 7 pts after 4Last 5 matches · latest first
- 06.09.2026 away Espanol 1:1
- 29.08.2026 home Ath Madrid 1:3
- 22.08.2026 away Ath Bilbao 3:1
- 15.08.2026 home Vallecano 2:1
- 23.05.2026 away Celta 0:1
Valencia CF
20th place · 1 pts after 4Last 5 matches · latest first
- 06.09.2026 home Barcelona 0:5
- 30.08.2026 away La Coruna 1:3
- 25.08.2026 home Betis 0:1
- 22.08.2026 home Celta 0:0
- 23.05.2026 home Barcelona 3:1
This season: Sevilla FC at home vs Valencia CF away
| Metric | Sevilla FC · at home | Valencia CF · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 2 | 1 |
| W–D–L | 1–0–1 | 0–0–1 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.50 | 1.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| xG for per match | 1.54 | 1.33 |
| xG against per match | 1.41 | 1.42 |
| Shots on target per match | 4.50 | 4.00 |
| Corners per match | 2.50 | 5.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 100% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 100% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 21.03.2026 Sevilla FC 0:2 Valencia CF
- 07.12.2025 Valencia CF 1:1 Sevilla FC
- 11.04.2025 Valencia CF 1:0 Sevilla FC
- 11.01.2025 Sevilla FC 1:1 Valencia CF
- 17.02.2024 Valencia CF 0:0 Sevilla FC
- 11.08.2023 Sevilla FC 1:2 Valencia CF
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Sevilla FC hold a slight edge over Valencia CF in this LaLiga meeting, with the available assessment giving the hosts a high-confidence advantage. That does not point to a one-sided contest, however, as the overall scoring outlook is medium and the expected balance between the teams leaves room for a controlled, competitive match.
The main result signal supports Sevilla FC avoiding defeat, while Valencia CF remain capable of making the game close. Both teams scoring is considered evenly balanced, so there is no clear basis for expecting either a clean sheet or goals at both ends. The most plausible scorelines are 1:1, 1:0, and 2:0, reflecting a match that could be decided by narrow margins rather than sustained dominance.
What matters before kick-off
Arouna Sangante suspended
Sevilla defender Arouna Sangante is suspended for the match following his red card in the previous fixture against Espanyol.
Valencia's difficult start
Valencia head into matchday 5 winless in LaLiga, having picked up just 1 point from four games following a 5-0 loss to Barcelona in their last outing.
Sevilla's recent form
Sevilla drew 1-1 against Espanyol last weekend, taking their tally to 7 points from their opening four league matches (W2, D1, L1).
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.