Sevilla FC — Valencia CF: Win probabilities, 11.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 78.0% |
| 12 | 72.5% | |
| X2 | 49.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 47.8% / 52.2% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 90.5% / 9.5% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 70.8% / 29.2% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 44.1% / 55.9% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 23.0% / 77.0% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 10.1% / 89.9% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 3.8% / 96.2% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Odds movement
| W2 | was 4.00 → now 4.20 |
Match preview
Sevilla FC hold a slight edge over Valencia CF in this LaLiga meeting, with the available assessment giving the hosts a high-confidence advantage. That does not point to a one-sided contest, however, as the overall scoring outlook is medium and the expected balance between the teams leaves room for a controlled, competitive match.
The main result signal supports Sevilla FC avoiding defeat, while Valencia CF remain capable of making the game close. Both teams scoring is considered evenly balanced, so there is no clear basis for expecting either a clean sheet or goals at both ends. The most plausible scorelines are 1:1, 1:0, and 2:0, reflecting a match that could be decided by narrow margins rather than sustained dominance.
What matters before kick-off
Arouna Sangante suspended
Sevilla defender Arouna Sangante is suspended for the match following his red card in the previous fixture against Espanyol.
Valencia's difficult start
Valencia head into matchday 5 winless in LaLiga, having picked up just 1 point from four games following a 5-0 loss to Barcelona in their last outing.
Sevilla's recent form
Sevilla drew 1-1 against Espanyol last weekend, taking their tally to 7 points from their opening four league matches (W2, D1, L1).
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.