Levante UD — FC Barcelona: Win probabilities, 13.09.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 13.8% |
| 12 | 90.3% | |
| X2 | 95.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 50.2% / 49.8% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 98.0% / 2.0% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 92.0% / 8.0% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 77.7% / 22.3% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 58.7% / 41.3% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 39.2% / 60.8% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 23.2% / 76.8% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Levante UD face a demanding LaLiga meeting with FC Barcelona, who enter the contest as the clearly stronger side according to the available assessment. The away team has the stronger overall outcome signal, while the projected scoring profile points towards an open match with several attacking opportunities rather than a cautious, low-tempo encounter.
FC Barcelona are expected to control more of the game and create the greater share of dangerous situations, making an away victory the central analytical expectation. However, the outlook for both teams to score is balanced, so Levante UD retain a realistic possibility of contributing to the match's attacking rhythm even if they are likely to spend long periods without the ball. The main scenario is therefore a high-scoring game shaped by FC Barcelona's superior strength, with Levante UD needing an efficient performance in possession and at attacking transitions to keep the contest competitive.
What matters before kick-off
Eric Garcia available after UCL suspension
FC Barcelona defender Eric Garcia is available for selection against Levante UD after completing his UEFA Champions League suspension. He has been participating in training sessions with a protective face mask following a head injury.
FC Barcelona enter match following Champions League win
FC Barcelona travel to face Levante UD for Matchday 5 of LaLiga after opening their UEFA Champions League campaign with a 5-1 home win over Feyenoord. The team currently maintains a 100% winning start in the domestic league.
Raphinha named LaLiga Player of the Month
FC Barcelona winger Raphinha was named the LaLiga Player of the Month for August 2026/27. The Brazilian forward scored five goals across the opening month of the domestic campaign.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.