Real Madrid — Rayo Vallecano: Win probabilities, 12.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 95.4% |
| 12 | 90.6% | |
| X2 | 14.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 51.5% / 48.5% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 98.3% / 1.7% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 92.1% / 7.9% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 78.4% / 21.6% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 59.6% / 40.4% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 40.1% / 59.9% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 23.9% / 76.1% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 12.09.2026
Real Madrid
4th place · 9 pts after 4Last 5 matches · latest first
- 04.09.2026 away Betis 0:1
- 30.08.2026 home Malaga 4:0
- 26.08.2026 home Sociedad 4:1
- 22.08.2026 away Espanol 2:1
- 23.05.2026 home Ath Bilbao 4:2
Rayo Vallecano
14th place · 4 pts after 4Last 5 matches · latest first
- 05.09.2026 home Santander 3:2
- 31.08.2026 away Barcelona 2:5
- 20.08.2026 home Alaves 1:1
- 15.08.2026 away Sevilla 1:2
- 23.05.2026 away Alaves 2:1
This season: Real Madrid at home vs Rayo Vallecano away
| Metric | Real Madrid · at home | Rayo Vallecano · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 2 | 2 |
| W–D–L | 2–0–0 | 0–0–2 |
| Goals scored per match | 4.00 | 1.50 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.50 | 3.50 |
| xG for per match | 2.77 | 1.49 |
| xG against per match | 0.64 | 2.51 |
| Shots on target per match | 9.50 | 4.00 |
| Corners per match | 6.50 | 3.50 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 100% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 100% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 01.02.2026 Real Madrid 2:1 Rayo Vallecano
- 09.11.2025 Rayo Vallecano 0:0 Real Madrid
- 09.03.2025 Real Madrid 2:1 Rayo Vallecano
- 14.12.2024 Rayo Vallecano 3:3 Real Madrid
- 18.02.2024 Rayo Vallecano 1:1 Real Madrid
- 05.11.2023 Real Madrid 0:0 Rayo Vallecano
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Real Madrid host Rayo Vallecano in LaLiga on 12 September 2026, with kickoff scheduled for 19:00 UTC. The available assessment gives Real Madrid a clear advantage and high confidence in the home side. The overall scoring outlook is high, suggesting an open match with several attacking opportunities rather than a closely contained contest.
The projected scorelines point toward a controlled Real Madrid victory, with 3:0, 2:0 and 4:0 among the most likely outcomes. That indicates a strong possibility of the hosts creating separation while limiting Rayo Vallecano’s chances. However, both teams scoring is considered evenly balanced, so Rayo Vallecano’s ability to contribute to the score remains uncertain. Real Madrid therefore enter as the clearly stronger team, while the main question is whether their superiority produces a clean-sheet win or a more open result.
What matters before kick-off
Real Madrid's upcoming fixture congestion
The match against Rayo Vallecano kicks off a busy stretch of three LaLiga fixtures in nine days for Real Madrid, followed by away matches against Elche and Atlético Madrid.
Tchouameni returns to Real Madrid squad
Aurélien Tchouaméni and Raúl Asencio have been included in Real Madrid's squad for the matchday 5 LaLiga clash against Rayo Vallecano after recovering from injuries.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.