Racing Santander — Deportivo Alaves: Win probabilities, 12.09.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 62.8% |
| 12 | 73.3% | |
| X2 | 63.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 63.1% / 36.9% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.0% / 6.0% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 82.6% / 17.4% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 59.5% / 40.5% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 37.1% / 62.9% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 19.9% / 80.1% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 9.2% / 90.8% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Odds movement
| W1 | was 2.45 → now 2.63 |
| W2 | was 2.75 → now 2.55 |
Match preview
Racing Santander and Deportivo Alaves meet in LaLiga on 12 September 2026 in a contest that looks evenly matched. The available assessment gives neither side a clear overall advantage, with moderate confidence in that reading. Racing Santander will have home advantage, while Deportivo Alaves bring a comparable level of strength to the matchup, making the balance between the teams difficult to separate.
The game is projected to be medium-scoring, and both teams are considered likely to find the net. The main scoreline scenarios point toward a close match, with 1-1 standing alongside narrow wins for either Racing Santander or Deportivo Alaves. The 1X signal provides a slight lean toward Racing Santander avoiding defeat, but the broader picture remains competitive rather than decisive. A match shaped by small moments and limited margins appears more likely than a one-sided encounter.
What matters before kick-off
Racing Santander's La Liga return
Racing Santander earned promotion to Spain's top flight for the 2026–27 campaign, marking their return to La Liga after a 14-year absence.
Racing Santander fixture schedule
Following their match against Deportivo Alavés on September 12, Racing Santander are scheduled to play away against FC Barcelona on September 16.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.