CA Osasuna — Espanyol Barcelona: Win probabilities, 12.09.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 71.7% |
| 12 | 69.8% | |
| X2 | 58.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 51.5% / 48.5% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 89.9% / 10.1% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 72.5% / 27.5% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 45.0% / 55.0% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 23.7% / 76.3% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 10.6% / 89.4% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 4.0% / 96.0% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Odds movement
| W1 | was 2.15 → now 2.30 |
| X | was 3.20 → now 3.10 |
| W2 | was 3.60 → now 3.30 |
Match preview
CA Osasuna hold a slight edge over Espanyol Barcelona in this LaLiga meeting. The assessment points toward a competitive match rather than a clear mismatch, with the home side marginally better placed in the overall outcome signal. The 1X indication supports CA Osasuna avoiding defeat, although the draw remains an important possibility.
The scoring outlook is medium-scoring, but there is no firm lean on whether both teams will find the net. A 1:1 draw is among the most plausible scorelines, underlining the balanced nature of the contest, while 0:0 and 1:0 also feature prominently. CA Osasuna may have the stronger platform at home, yet Espanyol Barcelona have a realistic route to taking a point if they keep the match controlled. Overall, the game appears finely balanced with a modest advantage for the hosts rather than a decisive prediction.
What matters before kick-off
Osasuna missing four players due to injury
Defenders Valentin Rosier and Jorge Herrando, alongside midfielders Aimar Oroz and Moi Gómez, continued their recoveries from injury and were ruled out for the match against Espanyol.
Espanyol facing three LaLiga matches in six days
Espanyol begin a congested schedule of three LaLiga fixtures in six days, starting with their away match against CA Osasuna at El Sadar.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.