RC Celta de Vigo — Malaga CF: Win probabilities, 13.09.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 81.6% |
| 12 | 74.7% | |
| X2 | 43.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 49.0% / 51.0% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 91.8% / 8.2% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 74.1% / 25.9% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 48.3% / 51.7% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 26.5% / 73.5% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 12.3% / 87.7% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 4.9% / 95.1% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Odds movement
| W2 | was 5.25 → now 5.00 |
Match preview
RC Celta de Vigo have a slight edge over Malaga CF in this LaLiga meeting, although the low confidence attached to that assessment points to a closely balanced contest. The available signal leans toward the home side, but it does not suggest a decisive gap between the teams. That makes the match difficult to separate with certainty, particularly at kickoff in Vigo.
The scoring outlook is medium-scoring, with both teams scoring assessed as an even possibility. A draw remains a credible scenario, while a narrow home victory also fits the overall picture. The most plausible scorelines include 1:1, 2:0 and 1:0, reflecting a game that could either remain finely poised or be settled by a small attacking advantage for RC Celta de Vigo. Malaga CF should therefore remain competitive, with the main analytical lean limited to a modest home advantage.
What matters before kick-off
LaLiga matchday 5 fixture
RC Celta de Vigo host Malaga CF at Estadio Abanca-Balaidos in matchday 5 of the 2026/27 LaLiga season. Claudio Giraldez leads the home side, while Juan Funes manages the visitors.
Celta's European campaign
In the 2026/27 season, RC Celta de Vigo are competing in the UEFA Europa League alongside their domestic LaLiga campaign.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.